We are now less than two months away from the first RNC presidential primary debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee. The RNC released criteria early this month, with one part in particular causing chatter. In order to qualify for the debate, candidates must not only meet donor and polling requirements, but are expected to sign a pledge indicating that they will support whoever the Republican nominee is.
Not all the candidates running support signing a pledge. This especially includes former and potentially future President Donald Trump being top of mind, as Leah highlighted when the criteria was first released.
Trump has come out even more strongly, though, indicating now more than ever before that he could skip out. NBC News covered on Wednesday how Trump was "exploring" options. "People familiar with Trump's deliberations say he's still inclined to skip the August debate--and is exploring options for a competing event," the subheadline read.
Whether or not Trump does decide to debate, the report emphasizes he's the one who will make that decision:
"He is not going to debate unless he’s forced to by changing polling," said a person who has encouraged Trump to take the stage. "I disagree with it, but it is where he is."
All of that helps explain why, in interviews with more than a half-dozen advisers, it was clear that — even in his private conversations — Trump is leaning heavily toward skipping that first debate.
Trump is also exploring options for counterprogramming during the first debate, according to people familiar with his deliberations.
Trump's absence would deprive the RNC, Fox News and GOP primary voters of the Republican Party's most compelling — and most powerful — figure. And Trump knows he can keep attention on himself by making his appearance conditional, at best.
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And still, there are voices in his ear that say that he should jump onto the stage — and that, in the end, he won’t be able to resist the allure of being in the spotlight.
"He shops opinions with everyone and will get, like, 100 different opinions," an adviser said. "He wants to know what everyone thinks but will ultimately do what he wants to do. In general, he is asking everyone, from the bellman to [RNC Chair] Ronna McDaniel."
Trump hasn't made a final decision, the adviser said, "but if he does not debate, I doubt he's staying home."
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It's possible that Trump would be the center of a Republican debate in absentia, as he has been the main topic of discussion for the party for most of the last eight years. He might also stand to benefit if the rest of the field turns its fire on DeSantis, the governor of Florida, to knock him from the second-place perch.
Either way, several advisers said they don't see much incentive for Trump to mix it up with candidates far below him in the polls.
"Why would he elevate the likes of ‘Ada’ Hutchinson?" a top aide said, using the misnomer Trump deploys for former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.
Trump himself also spoke to Reuters, as POLITICO highlighted in their Friday edition of Playbook AM. In a telephone interview, he said he would "possibly not" participate. "Why would I give them time to make statements? Why would I do that when I'm leading them by 50 points and 60 points," he wondered.
The former and potentially future president, and as it stands now, likely Republican nominee, has a point. Individual polls show him leading by a considerably wide margin overall and in some specific states. RealClearPolitics (RCP) currently shows him with a +30.9 lead against his rivals.
It turns out that Trump isn't the only candidate who has bristled against the criteria, though he is the most prolific candidate. As NBC News also made note of:
There is another consideration: RNC rules require debate participants to pledge to support the party's nominee in the general election. Trump ultimately agreed to do that in 2016 and then backtracked. He has long held open the threat that he wouldn't endorse a candidate who defeated him for the nomination.
Some of the other candidates, including Hutchinson, former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, have either said they wouldn't back Trump or criticized the loyalty oath.
Christie called the pledge a "useless idea" in an interview this month on CNN, arguing that Republicans should be willing to support their nominee without turning it into a blood oath.
“It’s only the era of Donald Trump that you need somebody to sign something on a pledge,” Christie said. “So I think it’s a bad idea.”
But it isn't clear they will surpass the donor and polling thresholds the RNC has set for candidates to earn spots on the stage. Candidates must sign pledges only after they have qualified for debates, said a person familiar with the rules.
Axios on Thursday spoke even further to the pledge and its timing. Citing the confirmation from "a person familiar with the change," Republican presidential candidates who look to qualify for the debate won't be presented with the pledge until they meet the other criteria, including those to do with donors and polling.
This Thursday report came after ABC News reported as much on Wednesday, which also cited sources.
Also early this month, right when the criteria was announced, POLITICO put forth a list of where the candidates stand on qualifying. Among those certain to do so include Trump, but also Florida's Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, South Carolina's Sen. Tim Scott, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
When running for president in the Republican back in the 2016 primary, Trump missed a January debate and instead held a fundraiser for veterans groups. He told CBS News not long after that he didn't regret it. As we know, he won the nomination and the presidency, so it's not hard to see how he didn't regret it.