The attempted coup against Russian President Vladimir Putin is over. He remains in power while his top mercenary, who urged a national rebellion, can relocate to Belarus and avoid criminal charges related to this incident. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner Group, a mercenary army, called for an uprising against the military leadership that he accused of being evil and said his struggle to remove them was a crusade for justice. He also accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of attacking his forces. Most of Russia’s military is fighting in Ukraine, so this would be a prime opportunity to launch a coup d’état.
Russian military and political leaders weren’t taking any chances, placing security units on high alert. Putin allegedly fled Moscow. Prigozhin’s forces were around 124 miles (200 km) from the capital before he ordered a stand-down order. His troops withdrew shortly afterward, which was well because there weren’t enough of them to lay siege to Moscow. Still, some US officials noted they were shocked Prigozhin halted his advance due to his “dominant” position overall (via ABC News):
A senior U.S. official says it is a mystery as to why Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin stopped his march to Moscow given that he was seemingly in a dominant position.
— ABC News (@ABC) June 24, 2023
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A senior U.S. official says it is a mystery as to why Yevgeny Prigozhin stopped his march to Moscow given that he was seemingly in a dominant position.
The official said he was greeted as a hero in Rostov-on-Don. However, the senior official told ABC News that Prigozhin is in an "emotional state," and perhaps did it because he thought this would destroy Russia, or because he glimpsed his own end. It is impossible to tell whether Prigozhin thinks Russian President Vladimir Putin will actually honor their deal which included allowing Wagner group soldiers to be folded into the Russian military.
The official said that Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko was very effective, telling Prigozhin and Putin that this was all a misunderstanding and that they are both patriots and aligned for the same goals.
Putin is said to be completely shocked by how fast Wagner Group moved through Russia. For now, he is just trying to secure his position. He does not want to be seen negotiating over his defense minister, but the official says the U.S. believes concessions were made over Sergei Shoigu's future as well as others.
And due to the Wagner Group’s rapid deployment, some were observing how this coup attempt was probably planned well in advance. Unsurprisingly, the intelligence community came sprinting forward, saying they knew something was brewing weeks ago. The Washington Post reported that intelligence officials knew since mid-June, so last week (via WaPo):
U.S. intelligence officials had known since mid-June that Wagner leader Prigozhin was plotting an armed operation inside Russia https://t.co/kNdbbxIYfD
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) June 25, 2023
U.S. spy agencies picked up intelligence in mid-June indicating Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin was planning armed action against the Russian defense establishment — which he has long accused of bungling the war in Ukraine — and urgently informed the White House and other government agencies so they were not caught off guard, several U.S. officials said Saturday.
The exact nature and timing of Prigozhin’s plans were not clear until shortly before his stunning takeover of a military command and tank run toward Moscow on Friday and Saturday, officials said. But “there were enough signals to be able to tell the leadership … that something was up,” said one U.S. official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. “So I think they were ready for it.”
Over the past two weeks there was “high concern” about what might transpire — whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain in power and what any instability might mean for control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, the official said. “There were lots of questions along those lines,” this person said.
The instability that might result from a Russian “civil war” was the key fear, officials said.
In addition to the White House, senior officials at the Pentagon, State Department and in Congress were briefed within the past two weeks on the intelligence, officials said. CNN earlier reported that officials had briefed congressional leaders this past week.
So, everyone knew something was happening, only for it to die out in less than two days. Are we sure this was a legitimate coup attempt?
We’ll keep you updated.