While the Chinese Communist Party continues escalating its threatening behavior toward the island nation of Taiwan, the Biden administration is reportedly preparing plans to evacuate Americans should the situation on the ground become so dire that a rapid departure is necessitated.
First reported in an exclusive from The Messenger based on conversations with three sources familiar with the plans, the Biden administration's work to prepare for an evacuation of U.S. citizens began roughly six months ago and has "heated up over the past two months or so," according to a "senior U.S. intelligence official" quoted by The Messenger.
These preparations have not been publicly confirmed by the Biden administration, a reality sources who spoke to The Messenger attributed to it being "a sensitive subject for the Taiwanese government" because of the appearance given by the United States preparing to scoop all its citizens out of the country, even if the plans are being made out of an abundance of caution and are not set to be imminently used.
Given the Biden administration's disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan — one which saw Afghan refugees falling from the landing gear of military aircraft departing Kabul, 13 U.S. service members killed by a suicide bomber, and a lack of vetting and coordination that saw an unknown number of American citizens and our allies left behind to fend for themselves against the Taliban — there are lasting questions about the administration's ability to safely run an evacuation.
According to a State Department publication from 2019, "there are over 80,000 U.S. citizens in Taiwan" on any given day, meaning the Biden administration would certainly have a tall order on its hands if it decided, suddenly, to get all Americans out of the country should China take action to launch an invasion or attack against Taiwan. Given what the administration oversaw in Afghanistan and, more recently, in Sudan, there's plenty of reason to doubt Biden's ability to guarantee Americans' safe passage out of Taiwan if it comes under attack.
Here's what, according to The Messenger, the Biden administration would face:
The details of the U.S. plans are still being worked out, sources told The Messenger, including where U.S. citizens might be evacuated if it were deemed necessary.
All agreed: Any evacuation from Taiwan would pose multiple challenges.
“The physical geography of Taiwan is a big factor,” one source said, adding that there is often only one main route between any two points and that the mountainous island’s many tunnels could become chokepoints. If evacuations were ordered, it is likely that hundreds of thousands of other foreigners in Taiwan – and Taiwanese citizens – would be on those roads as well.
General State Department guidance urges citizens abroad to use commercial transport to leave ahead of a crisis, but that’s not always possible – and certainly not in the event of a surprise assault. “Once the shooting starts it’s very, very difficult," Cancian said. He pointed to the challenge of maintaining safe corridors for evacuations and humanitarian aid in Ukraine as an example.
In Taiwan, the main airports are on the island’s China-facing west coast and might well be under attack in the event of an invasion. Chartered vessels might be sent in place of commercial planes, but again, war would render that option difficult if not impossible.
“Imagine a D-Day invasion and then a third country – Switzerland or something like that – wants to send a cruise ship through the U.S. fleet to Normandy to pick up its citizens,” Cancian said.
In some of the most harrowing evacuations in U.S. history - Saigon in 1975, or Kabul in 2021 - the U.S. military was enlisted to help as a last resort. In Taiwan, the current U.S. presence is limited to some 200 troops - up from just 30 last year – and even that presence is a source of tension with China.
The planning was also, according to The Messenger, spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, one that took place after the Biden administration wasted months of time trying to get Beijing to talk Putin out of invading its neighbor.
As Townhall reported, the exercise in futility only drew Putin and Xi closer together, and now both threaten the United States' leadership on the world stage.
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The official said a “heightened level of tension” had driven the preparations. “It’s nothing you wouldn’t read in the news,” he told The Messenger. “Forces building up. China aligning with Russia on Ukraine.”
A source familiar with the matter cited Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine as an impetus for the planning. “Ukraine drove a relook at what the plans were,” he said.
The U.S. government hasn’t discussed the preparations publicly. The State Department declined a request for comment. While Pentagon spokesperson Lt. Col. Martin Meiners declined to comment directly on the planning, he said, “We do not see a conflict in the Taiwan Strait as imminent or inevitable.”