First-term Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) is officially getting involved in the Ohio 2024 Senate race, by endorsing businessman Bernie Moreno, who teased and officially entered the race last month.
Thrilled to endorse Bernie Moreno for senate. He’s a good friend, a job creator, and will be a fantastic senator. We’d make a hell of a team! https://t.co/eTdVZsYgfn
— J.D. Vance (@JDVance1) May 22, 2023
In a statement endorsing Moreno, Vance referred to him by his first name and called him a "friend," going on to say "Bernie is a lifelong businessman, who has created thousands of good-paying middle-class jobs and is a strong America First conservative, who will never stop fighting to protect Ohio workers and families. Bernie is committed to securing our southern border, getting tough on China and taking the fight to the woke corporations waging war against our conservative values," Fox News reported.
"It’s time to turn the tides on the establishment insiders who sell out our country to special interests and elect more political outsiders like Bernie, who will always put America First in Washington, DC. I’m looking forward to having Bernie as a colleague in the U.S. Senate," Vance added.
A source close to Vance told Fox News that the endorsement has to do with avoiding a "bloody primary." Per the source, "beyond being personally close to Bernie and viewing him as an ideological ally, JD is endorsing Bernie so early because he feels strongly about ensuring that we don’t see a replay of the type of bloody primary fight that he had to deal with last cycle, which left him with depleted resources going into the general election. He believes that Bernie is the candidate best positioned to quickly unify both the conservative grassroots and the Ohio donor class around his campaign to give Republicans the strongest shot at defeating Sherrod Brown next year."
Vance has also endorsed Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) to replace retiring Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) and former and potentially future President Donald Trump. After earning Trump's endorsement in April of last year for his own primary, Vance's poll numbers surged before he went on to win the crowded primary to replace former Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), who was retiring.
Such an endorsement for Moreno may make Trump likely to endorse him as well. Moreno had run in last year's Senate primary, but dropped out in February, with the Fox News report mentioning he did so after requesting and holding a private meeting with Trump. Moreno went on to endorse Vance and campaign for him, which included acting as his opponent, former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), during debate preparation. Vance beat Ryan with 53.28 percent of the vote to Ryan's 46.72 percent.
Moreno's connections to Trump run further, as his daughter is married to Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) who served as an aide to and was endorsed by the former president. Trump also praised Moreno when news of his ultimately upcoming announcement came out.
One person almost certainly not likely to get Trump's endorsement is state Sen. Matt Dolan, who came in third last year behind Vance and former Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel, even with a last minute assist from the mainstream media. Dolan has claimed voters want to "move on" from Trump, though the former and potentially future president still remains a relevant figure in Ohio, where Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020 by about 8 points. Dolan announced earlier this year, in January, and, like Moreno, is wealthy.
The primary may get even more crowded, though, as Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose has publicly expressed interest in running, with a timetable of "mid-to-late" summer, according to local news outlet WLWT. NBC News also reported earlier this month he's expected to announce "soon." LaRose won reelection last November by beating Democrat Chelsea Clark by 20 points, and touted that he was the only sitting secretary of state to be endorsed by Trump.
Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) may also be a contender.
This Ohio Senate race is one of the top races to watch come 2024, if not the race. The seat, currently held by Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, is considered a top pickup for Republicans as part of a Senate map that is already looking favorable towards the party. Other top races include West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has not yet declared his intentions, and Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) has made it known he is running for reelection.
Both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball consider the Ohio Senate race to be a "Toss-Up," while Inside Elections considers it a "Battleground Democratic" race.