The dearth of stories about this is usually a good sign that the polling is off. For a moment, there were stories about how close the Iowa U.S. Senate race had reportedly become, with Democrat Michael Franken within three points of incumbent Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley. The latest Des Moines Register poll had Grassley up 46-43 over Franken. He was up eight points in previous surveys, which should get some Democrats animated over the prospect of taking down the longtime Republican. Yet even articles from liberal outlets are wondering if this story is real. Grassley is an institution in the Hawkeye State—even with the latest poll showing Democrats within striking distance.
The poll from The Des Moines Register shows independent voters shifting to Franken, with longtime pollster J. Ann Selzer saying the close race indicates that the Democrats have a candidate running a sound campaign. On paper, this is Grassley’s most difficult in nearly 40 years; he beat incumbent Democratic Sen. John Culver by eight points in 1980 (via Des Moines Register):
Two election analysts are slightly downgrading Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley’s chances of winning reelection this November following the release of a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, though they still say a Grassley victory is likely.
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It suggests a contest closer than any Grassley has faced since he defeated a Democratic incumbent by 8 percentage points to win his first election to the U.S. Senate in 1980.
Sabato's Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report are shifting their ratings of the race from a "safe" or "solid" Republican victory to a "likely" Republican win.
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“Do I think that Chuck Grassley is in serious danger of losing? No, I don’t,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “But I also think we’ve seen enough in this race to look at it as maybe being in a different category than, you know, the Oklahoma Senate race, that sort of thing — some of the other races in the safe Republican column.”
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Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor with Cook Political Report, released her rating change Tuesday afternoon. She noted the poll results, including numbers that show Grassley's approval rating is now underwater for the first time in the Iowa Poll's history, with more disapproving (48%) than approving (44%).
Still, Taylor writes that, "we still see Grassley as the clear favorite to win re-election, but it could be his closest race ever since he was first elected in 1980 by 8 points."
As you can see, not everyone is convinced since being a 40-plus-year incumbent has its advantages. Even with his disapproval rating reaching record highs, there’s no way a massive swatch of Iowan Republicans will jump ship and vote Democratic. Iowa is losing its label as a swing state as it becomes more reliably Republican. It’s a midterm cycle where Republicans could ride in on a last-minute surge as Democrats seem incapable of dealing with or recognizing the economic recession, high inflation, and rising crime. The lack of polling conducted with this race shows you where the political operatives on both sides feel about his contest.
The same conditions apply to Ohio, the cream of the swing states. The Buckeye State has now shifted so much to Republicans that observers are now wondering if Democrats could ever win there again.
The silence from the cornfields since mid-October is all you need to know. Grassley is winning his re-election bid.
