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Even More Polls Could Spell Trouble for Georgia Democrats

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  August 30, 2022 10:00 PM

A few weeks ago, a poll was released by The Phillips Academy, showing Herschel Walker, a Republican challenging Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) this November, with a slim lead. We're talking very slim, as it was a lead of 1.6 percent, and within the margin of error. That being said, it still provided a glimmer of hope as to what was potentially to come.

As we get closer to November, it turns out that that poll is not merely an outlier. While Walker's lead remains narrow, his lead is at least consistent with various other recent polls this month.

On Tuesday, Emerson College released a poll showing Walker with a 2 percent lead, with 46 percent to Warnock's 44 percent. Four percent say they'd vote for someone else, while 7 percent are undecided. It's particularly telling that Walker leads at all, considering that fewer respondents, 47 percent of them, regardless of whom they support, believe he will win, while 53 percent believe Warnock will win.

The race isn't just tight on their numbers of who leads, but also when it comes to their favorability numbers. Forty-nine percent of respondents have a favorable view of Walker, while 46 percent have a favorable view of Warnock. The incumbent's favorability views are both better and worse than Walker's, in that 41 percent have a "very favorable" view of him an 40 percent have a "very unfavorable" view, while 27 percent have a "very favorable" view of Warnock and 38 percent have a "very unfavorable" view of him. 

Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball is also quoted in the poll as laying out what voters from where support which candidate. Unsurprisingly, Warnock leads 66 percent to 25 percent with urban voters, but Walker leads 58 percent to 24 percent with rural voters and in the suburbs he leads with 50 percent to 41 percent. 

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The race has changed somewhat though, and not all in Walker's favor, as it's worth noting that Emerson polling from April had Walker ahead by 4 percentage points, with 49 percent to Warnock's 45 percent. That was almost five months ago, though, and before Walker was even the Republican nominee. 

Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) is also up for re-election, in a rematch from 2018 between him and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams. Polling also suggests that she's likely to lose again. For Kemp leads with 48 percent to Abrams' 44 percent. Six percent would vote for someone else, and just 2 percent are undecided.

This race has turned even more steadfast in Kemp's favor. Once considered a "Toss-Up," it's since been moved to being considered "Lean Republican" or "Tilt Republican."

The Emerson poll was conducted August 28-29, with 600 likely general election Georgia voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. While Kemp just misses his lead being within the margin of error, Walker's lead is within the margin of error. 

As Georgia requires a candidate to win with a majority in order to win the election, one better hope that the leads increase, unless they want to trigger a runoff. Sen. Warnock did not win his election until the January 5, 2021 runoff, as he came in with less than 50 percent for the November general election.

Another poll, from the Trafalgar Group, showed an even tighter race, with Walker leading by 0.8 percent, with 47.5 percent to Warnock's 46.7 percent. Just slightly under 3 percent of respondents are undecided. 

The lead that Kemp has over Abrams is much more commanding, by 6.4 percent. This poll also has Kemp above the 50 percent threshold, with 50.6 percent to Abrams' 44.2 percent. Slightly more respondents are undecided in this particular race. 

The Trafalgar poll for Georgia was conducted August 24-27, with 1,079 likely general election voter respondents  and a margin of error of 2.9 percent. It may also be telling that slightly more Democratic voters, 43.9 percent of them, responded, compared to 42.2 percent, yet the Republican candidates still lead their Democratic opponents. 

"Warnock" was trending on Twitter, partly in response to how the potentially losing candidate is faring in the polls.

Like many races we've covered in the previous weeks, and will continue to cover as we get closer to the midterms, the Georgia Senate race could very well determine who controls the Senate. Currently, forecasters mostly say the Senate is a "Toss-Up," and consider this specific race to also be a "Toss-Up."