The upcoming November midterms are now just about three months away, and then we'll be that much closer to the 2024 presidential election, a race which is increasingly looking like it could be a rematch of 2020. If President Joe Biden were to listen to the polls on this one, though, he and his handlers would take a hint and he'd retire. Thus, it wouldn't be the incumbent seeking another term, but his predecessor, former President Donald Trump.
Trump has reportedly made up his mind on whether or not he'll run, and many believe he will be running again. It's just a matter of whether or not he'll announce before the November elections, potentially negatively impacting the Republicans by making the midterms a referendum on him, rather than the particularly unpopular Biden. And it's not just Biden who might have an announcement to make around the time after or even before the midterms.
As Guy recently highlighted, a July 24 op-ed from The Washington Post, by Steven L. Isenberg, advocates for Biden to announce before November, with Isenberg's headline pleading "Quit, Joe, Quit! Biden could save the midterms with a one-term pledge."
Not only has Biden not indicated he's not running, not yet at least, he's also mixed up poll findings when confronted by the press about how even fellow Democrats don't want him to run. Much was made about last month's poll from The New York Times/Siena College, which found that 64 percent of Democrats want someone else to run. Other polls look to be similarly bad.
A recently released poll from Yahoo News/YouGov highlights the overall picture of just how badly people don't want Biden to run again. In a write-up of the poll for Yahoo News, Andrew Romano goes with the headline of how "Poll: Many Americans say 2nd Biden or Trump term would be 'worst thing that could happen' in 2024."
When it comes to that particular, dramatic finding, a plurality said it would be "the worst thing that could happen" if President Biden, at 39 percent, or if President Trump, at 41 percent, were to be elected again in 2024. While 22 percent say it would be "the best thing" if Trump had a second term, just 8 percent said the same about Biden.
But as mentioned, the poll numbers are particularly bad for Biden, the incumbent who has bragged that he's beat Trump before and believes he can do it again.
Overall, 18 percent say that Biden should run again in 2024. That includes just 29 percent of those who voted for him in 2020, while 46 percent say he should not. When it comes to whether Biden is viewed as being a stronger candidate in 2024 than he was in 2020, just 12 percent of overall respondents think he would be, including 26 percent of Democrats. A majority of overall respondents, at 54 percent, think he will be weaker, while a plurality of Democrats, at 32 percent, say so.
NEW Poll w/@YahooNews: Most Republicans (57%) say Trump would be a stronger candidate now than he was in 2020, while just 26% of Democrats say the same about Biden.https://t.co/pVrhUuz2F4 pic.twitter.com/5FwDfjVmIP
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) August 4, 2022
Trump, on the other hand, fares much better in this regard. Overall, 28 percent of respondents think he would be a stronger candidate in 2024 than he was in 2020, while a plurality, at 34 percent, who say he would be weaker. Trump's fellow Republicans appear to be far more supportive of a 2024 run than Democrats are of Biden. A majority, at 57 percent, believe Trump will be stronger, while just 17 percent think he'll be weaker.
It's not just The New York Times/Siena College poll that Biden appears to not be listening to. Only 27 percent of Democrats and Independents who lean Democratic want Biden to be the nominee, compared to the 55 percent who would prefer "someone else" be that nominee.
Romano highlights such a contrast in his write-up:
By the same token, 2020 Trump voters are nearly twice as likely as Biden voters (29%) to say their guy should run again in 2024 (54%). The reason: They’re simply far more confident in Trump’s strength as a candidate, with just 18% saying the former president would be weaker in 2024 than he was in 2020 — and a full 53% saying he would be the party’s strongest candidate next time around. Put another way, Trump voters (58%) are nearly three times as likely as Biden voters (22%) to say their party’s leading presidential contender would be stronger in 2024 than he was four years earlier.
This poll was conducted with 1,557 U.S. adults online from July 28-August 1 with a margin of error of 2.7 percent.
Trump's approval an favorability ratings, though, have generally gotten better over time, while Biden's had gotten worse, which, as a May 31 report from NBC News revealed, had Biden "seething." Biden had experienced a low hovering around 36-38 percent in past months, according to averages from RealClearPolitics (RCP).
Writing for Newsweek on Friday morning, Giulia Carbonaro highlighted how "Joe Biden Approval Rating Boosted Ahead of Midterms: Poll," referring to a Rasmussen tracking poll of Biden, which for Friday shows the president at a 43 percent approval rating among likely voters, while 55 percent disapprove.
That 21 percent strongly approve and 44 percent strongly disapprove gives Biden a Presidential Approval Index rating of -23, as Rasmussen pointed out.
While all of that is something of an improvement, it's not exactly great news for Biden. Further, he's still at just 39.5 percent, while 56.5 percent disapprove, according to RCP.
And, as Romano had written in his write-up:
The survey of 1,557 U.S. adults, which was conducted from July 28 to Aug. 1, is just the latest in a series of dismal readings of the national mood — but it may be the bleakest yet.
That’s particularly true when it comes to public perceptions of Biden.
Over the last three weeks, the president’s job approval rating has declined another three points, from 38% to 35%, a new low. Even fewer Americans approve of the job he is doing on the economy (30%) and inflation (26%). Overall, only 26% of Americans think Biden is “up to the challenges facing the U.S.,” including just 17% of independents and an anemic 54% of Democrats.
Most Americans also think Biden is either “changing too much about America” (30%) or “not changing it enough” (35%). Only 15% say Biden is changing the United States by “the right amount.”
In contrast, Trump, during his first term, had a RCP average approval rating of 42.8 percent.