Tipsheet

Data: GOP Surging in the 'Burbs, Dems Losing Hispanics, 'Woke' Messaging Alienating Swing Voters

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  November 12, 2021 12:01 PM

Let's review a few more polling notes in the wake of last week's Republican victories. One of the keys to the Virginia statewide sweep, in addition to extremely strong GOP base turnout, was a shift toward the GOP in the suburbs. This wasn't just true in Northern Virginia, where Glenn Youngkin cut into Democratic margins, but in other suburban areas that swung red. We analyzed a recent NBC News poll showing substantial Republican nationwide advantages on major issues. This Politico/Morning Consult survey shows much of the same, with the opposition party developing strong leads among suburban voters in particular: 


A full 15-point swing in Republicans' favor on the economy in ten months, which isn't far off from the 12-to-13 point shift in the vote margins in both Virginia and New Jersey (Biden margin vs. 2021 gubernatorial margin). Notice that the GOP now holds significant, sometimes commanding leads, in the 'burbs on national security, the economy, jobs, immigration, and even guns. They're also competitive on issues that typically heavily favor Democrats, like healthcare, voting rights, energy, and...education. On the education front, these two tweets may help explain why voters are moving away from Democrats: 


"Teacher exhaustion" threatening in-person instruction and ongoing racial indoctrination are not going to play well, no matter how much gaslighting the Democrats, teachers unions and journalists attempt to employ. This same leftist alliance is also very invested in the racism narrative, but I'm not sure that's working too well for them, either. Latinos have been edging rightward, and they're increasingly unimpressed with the president: 


In Virginia, the Fox News voter analysis showed Youngkin winning Hispanics outright, but CNN's exit polling gave Democrat Terry McAuliffe a large lead within that Demographic. I asked RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende about it in a recent radio interview, wondering if splitting the difference sounded about right to him (Youngkin in the 40's among Hispanics). He said that wasn't a bad shortcut, and mentioned some precinct-level data that pointed in that same direction. Here are some examples from Democratic Fairfax County: 


Trende notes that the bulk of the "other" category is Asians, who also gravitated away from the Democrats in both 2020 and 2021, compared to 2017. And the Hispanic Democratic vote share drop-off is dramatic. Just shouting "white supremacy" in response isn't going to cut it. But Republicans should hope Democrats and their allies keep at it. A fascinating study commissioned by a left-wing group found that wokeness is a major turnoff for swing/infrequent voters. Some takeaways, via The New York Times: 

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Figuring out what moves these swing voters is a crucial question in American politics. It has become an urgent question for the Democratic Party, which is struggling to win working-class votes in many places, including some Asian and Latino communities. This morning, a creative new poll exploring these issues is being released. It asks working-class respondents — defined as people without a bachelor’s degree — to choose between two hypothetical candidates. The candidates are described both personally (their gender, race and job category) and politically (including a sound bite in which they talk about their views). A central conclusion is that infrequent voters are not a huge Democratic constituency just waiting to be inspired by a sufficiently progressive economic message...the political costs of a campaign message focused on ethnic identity seem significantly larger than the benefits, Sunkara said. Among five different candidate sound bites presented to respondents, the worst-performing was one that the pollsters internally described as “woke moderate.” Its first sentence sounds like something out of a corporate mission statement: "Our unity is our strength, and our diversity is our power. But for too long, special interests have blocked critical progress in addressing systemic racism, climate change, and access to affordable health care. We need creative leaders who will fight for our values, listen to the experts, and make real change happen."

The woke message came in dead last. Two other "candidate" soundbites that turned these voters off were described by the pollster as "woke progressive" and "mainstream moderate." The two soundbites that appealed to these voters were "populist progressive" (talking about fairness and a rigged system) and "Republican:" "It warned that “freedom is under threat from radical socialists, arrogant liberals and dangerous foreign influences." I'll leave you with a political soundbite that might actually poll worse than wokeness:


And oh, by the way, the Democratic "Build Back Better" agenda – which is now underwater – would offer tax cuts to the rich in blue states, and raise taxes on a large number of middle-class families: