The midterm elections are not looking ideal for President Joe Biden and the Democrats. Anyone who says otherwise is too partisan for their own good. Perhaps they don't know history. During a president's first term, his party tends to lose seats in the midterm elections. And by "tends to," I mean almost always when it comes to recent Congressional elections in our modern era. Biden's not any different. In fact, he may be in an even uniquely worse spot compared to predecessors. And there's an online pollster to show just how much.
Writing for The Washington Examiner, Zachary Faria highlights how "Biden continues to push Republicans toward 2022 victories in both houses of Congress." In his piece's closing, he offers this takeaway:
In the last four midterm elections, the party in the White House has lost more House seats than the 8-seat majority Democrats currently have. Barring catastrophe, the GOP should easily take the House majority. But the Senate is the big prize, as Republicans would have more control over, say, a Supreme Court nomination to replace Justice Stephen Breyer. Given that Breyer recently ruled that the president should essentially be able to do whatever he wants, it would be important for Republicans to have a say in who would replace him.
All signs continue to point to a national environment that won’t just sweep House Speaker Nancy Pelosi out of the speakership but could cut short Senate Majority Chuck Schumer’s first stint as the top senator after just two years. Things could not be lining up better for Republicans right now, and all they have to do is try not to throw it all away.
When it comes to that online pollster, he points to Civiqs, which is so comprehensive one could probably spend hours analyzing the results. It turns out there are many ways to examine the question "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?"
For the purposes of this piece, though, and as Faria aptly highlighted, there's Biden's approval rating by state.
There are 34 seats up in 2022, including some key ones, with details provided by Ballotpedia:
- Mark Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona, where 53-40 percent disapprove of Biden
- Marco Rubio, a Republican from Florida, where 53-41 percent disapprove of Biden
- Raphael Warnock, a Democrat from Georgia, where 54-38 percent disapprove of Biden
- Roy Blunt, a Republican from Missouri who is retiring, where 60-33 percent disapprove of Biden
- Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat from Nevada, where 49-43 percent disapprove of Biden
- Maggie Hassan, a Democrat from New Hampshire, where 47-45 percent approve of Biden
- Richard Burr, a Republican from North Carolina who is retiring, where 53-40 percent disapprove of Biden
- Pat Toomey, a Republican from Pennsylvania who is retiring, where 52-41 percent disapprove of Biden
- Ron Johnson, a Republican from Wisconsin who has not yet indicated whether he'll run again, where 50-44 percent disapprove of Biden
It's hardly a saving grace that Biden has a higher approval rating in New Hampshire, just one of those nine key states. It's a slim lead, and it's a plurality rather than a majority.
Further, Sen. Hassan's margin of victory in her last election was only by just 0.1 percent. As Reagan has highlighted, polling shows that in a hypothetical matchup between the incumbent and Gov. Chris Sununu, a popular Republican governor, Sununu is polling ahead.
As for the 50 states overall, Biden only has a higher approval than disapproval rating in 13 states, with six of them being majorities and seven of them being pluralities. He is most popular in Vermont where he has 60 percent support.
In the remaining 37 states, he has a majority disapproval rating in 32, whereas he has a plurality disapproval rating in the remaining five states. He is least popular in West Virginia, with a 75 percent disapproval rating. Oddly enough, one of the senators, Joe Manchin, is a Democrat.
In a 50-50 Senate, Democrats have the majority because Vice President Kamala Harris serves as a tie-breaking vote.