In my final pre-election analysis, I touched on a number of subjects and made a handful of predictions. Some of it is holding up rather well; other aspects, not so much. I'll revisit all of it once the dust settles, but I'd like to highlight this passage: "We've told you about some of the experimental polling methods that paint a far rosier picture of Trump's standing in the race. Given some track record of success on that front, I don't think they should be dismissed out of hand. If Trump pulls off another epic upset, the teams at Trafalgar and USC will instantly become highly sought-after gurus as the polling world attempts to pick up its shattered pieces." As of this writing, Trump has not pulled off said upset, but he's at least come rather close to doing so. And it's very clear that there were a wide array of significant polling misfires all across the electoral map. Again.
It's true that polling is an imprecise science, and such guesstimates will never be perfect. That's why margins of error exist. But broadly speaking, over the last few cycles, how often have pollsters gotten big races really wrong by overestimating a Republican's standing? I'm sure a small handful of examples must exist (selection bias and exhaustion may be taking a toll on me), but the biggest polling misses that immediately jump to mind involve Democrats' chances being repeatedly overestimated by the 'experts' before being contradicted by actual voters. GOP chances were underestimated in 2014. In 2016. In 2018 (less so). And now in 2020. I don't say this lightly, but:
Honestly, “suppression polls” has a ring of truth in some respects https://t.co/PIVfWg1Oot
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 4, 2020
One counter-point is that "prove the fake news media suppression polls wrong!" could be a GOP motivational tool in a way that "voter suppression!" is used by Democrats. That said, a small rant about this cycle's polling:
Also LOL at ABC/WAPO in WI (Biden +17) and even NYT/Siena (B+11). Many way off in OH, IA (PPP missed by 9 points) and elsewhere. We’ll see how it shakes out, and some are better than others, but some wildly rampant problems remain in the polling industry. Still. Undeniable.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 4, 2020
Polls even worse in some Senate races. Final polls had Graham clinging to lead. He’s up 13. Not one single poll at RCP had Collins ahead all year. She’s up 8. NBC poll had Tillis down 10. He’s up 2. 13 of last 14 polls has Tillis losing. Exception were those yahoos at Trafalgar.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 4, 2020
RealClearPolitics' Tom Bevan, who was savaged by the poll snobs for deigning to allow the Trafalgars of the world to influence the averages on his site, is making similar points:
NYT/Siena, rated an A+ pollster by 538, overestimated Biden's support by:
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 4, 2020
6+ in FL
4+ in NC
Probably 6ish in MI when the count is in
10 ish in WI
10+ in IA
9+ in OH
Great job.
The True Believers may not want to hear it, but there is a real problem in American political polling. It may not be as acute or widespread as some critics suggest, but it's absolutely real. Will the industry adjust, or stick with 'fake it til you make it' arrogance? I'll leave you with this:
For reference: Trafalgar's final polls predict a Trump win, as they did in '16. Their 2020 findings (vs. RCP average):
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 3, 2020
AZ T+3 (B+1)
FL T+2 (B+1)
GA T+4 (T+1)
MI T+2 (B+4)
MN B+3 (B+4)
NV T+1 (B+2)
NC T+2 (T+1)
OH T+5 (T+1)
PA T+2 (B+1)
WI B+1 (B+7)
We shall see.
Hardly perfection, but might you say it's a tad better than the garbage put out by many competitors? Just a little? One more:
Reminder that *not one* of these polls, dating back to February, showed Collins ahead — let alone with a near/majority. She’s now won decisively. There are some big league polling problems in American politics. What a massive win for her. pic.twitter.com/4UG8AQz5VS
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 4, 2020