Tipsheet

Democratic Angst: New Polls Show Trump Competitive in NH, CO, VA, MI

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  November 03, 2016 12:30 PM

This week, we've reviewed how Donald Trump could conceivably win Tuesday's election, but also waved a 'caution' flag by examining why his path remains narrow and difficult. The trick for him would be to (1) hang onto all of the 2012 Romney-carried states, (2) tack on FL/OH/IA, and then (3) patch together at least 11 more electoral votes. Step one isn't a done deal, with North Carolina exactly tied and a number of "red" states teetering dangerously in polling. But it's feasible. Step two is very much alive in Iowa and Ohio, with the former currently closer than the latter. Florida is tougher. Trump still has a very slim RCP average edge, but Clinton has led narrowly in four of the last six polls of the state. As usual, it's looking like a nail-biter.  As for step three, yesterday we looked at Clinton's 'blue firewall' holding steady in the remaining Obama-won states -- but three polls released over the last 24 hours may have Democrats sweating a bit. Here's Trump up one in New Hampshire (and look at that number for Ayotte):

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And Trump all tied up in Colorado:

In fairness, another new Colorado survey has Hillary in front by ten points, though it was in the field prior to the new FBI blow-up.  Then there's that poll showing Trump up three in Virginia, which the Trump campaign is telling reporters is at least somewhat in line with their internals:

And finally, Michigan:

These four states combined boast 42 electoral votes, not to mention the six in Nevada -- where Trump has a small RCP average lead (despite serious early voting-fueled doubts from seasoned experts on that state's politics).  The obviously, neon-light caveat to all of this is that each of the surveys highlighted above currently represent clear outliers, especially in New Hampshire and Virginia.  Hillary's Colorado numbers, however, have been tapering off as the election approaches.  But if you start to see more red data points on these scatterplots over the next few days, Democratic panic may become full-blown.  Meanwhile, what does the national picture look like?  Those numbers are less important than individual state polling because of the nature of our system, but I've been arguing that the 'Brexit upset' comparison only possibly works if the top line horserace is very close to tied.  In mid-October, Hillary Clinton's national lead in the four-way average was north of seven percentage points.  Today?  It's within two points.  Sure, that's helped along by a Rasmussen outlier giving Trump a three-point lead, but look at the other newest surveys.  IBD/TIPP finds a tie.  The ABC News tracker has Clinton up two.  The Economist/YouGov poll shows Clinton up three.  And the latest NYT/CBS numbers also show Clinton ahead by three.  That's not exactly solid footing for Hillary, particularly when you consider the context the Times apparently omitted from its story about its own findings:

I said it on Monday, and I'll reiterate it today: Any way you slice it, this race has tightened. I'll leave you with these two piece of information:

UPDATE -- Three's a trend in New Hampshire, where internal polling is also reportedly breaking in the same direction: