If you're convinced that Trump is winning no matter what, or that the whole system is 'rigged,' or that the polls have very recently become a pack of filthy MSM lies, then no countervailing evidence will convince you otherwise. But if you're interested in the actual state of the race, here's the Real Clear Politics national polling average since the end of the conventions. See if you can spot the trend:
Hillary, a remarkably bad candidate, is now up by ~7 points nationally: pic.twitter.com/fLGYebutJ7
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) August 5, 2016
That average includes two new new surveys: NBC/WSJ has Hillary up nine points (right on par with Fox and CNN's latest), while McClatchy/Marist pegs her lead at...15 points. That looks like an obvious outlier for now, but prior to this week, the last time Clinton held a double-digit lead in any poll was mid-to-late June. Now we've seen two additions to that tally in as many days. And four consecutive nationwide surveys have Trump sliding back into the 30's Let me spin you some positivity: Despite her growing advantage, Hillary's poor favorability numbers have barely moved at all. She's as disliked as ever. People just seem to be determining that Trump is worse. That means he has a chance to move the needle back in the other direction. He also just wrapped up a good fundraising month, which should allow him to counter-punch with his core messages and exploit her obvious weaknesses -- if his team ever ends up reserving any air time. And while I reject the conspiratorial "it's all rigged!" nonsense some of his followers have begun clinging to, there may be something to the "shy Trump voter" effect, a version of which we saw play out on the Brexit vote across the pond. (Here's the counterpoint on that). All things considered, the Trump campaign is in dire straits, but this thing ain't over. It's early August. But those flashes of hope shouldn't delude anyone into a embracing a Polyannish view of the race. More than any of the fresh polling data, this report should frighten Team Trump:
To recap: the Clinton camp is pausing its broadcast ads in both CO & VA. Super PAC pulling from all CO, much of VA, considering new states.
— Gabriel Debenedetti (@gdebenedetti) August 4, 2016
Say what you will about Hillary; she has a very professional and well-funded political team around her. They have excellent data and metrics. And what they're seeing has apparently convinced them to take the significant financial step of pulling resources out of the would-be swing states of Virginia and Colorado (two states that I singled out on Fox yesterday as places where the demographics seem stacked against Trump). Obviously, the Hillary camp believes the data proves that they have those two battlegrounds sewn up -- which makes the GOP ticket's sinking footing in Pennsylvania all the more concerning. Clinton and friends will re-allocate those dollars to other states in an effort to run up the score in heretofore red states. Arizona appears to be in play. Utah may be in play. And now, here's the latest out of Georgia:
New @ajc poll in Georgia.. yes... Georgia:@HillaryClinton 44%@realDonaldTrump 40%https://t.co/gNZJP737Ct
— Ryan Nobles (@ryanobles) August 5, 2016
When top Trump enablers are already cooking up (dubious) excuses and pointing fingers over his possible/probable loss, that's not a good sign. And compounding Trump's uphill battle is a press corps that, for instance, seemed more interested in fact-checking Trump's claim that he saw footage of the administration's secretive cash-for-hostages payoff to the Iranians than...the administration's secretive cash-for-hostages payoff to the Iranians. At least some people in the press aren't even carrying on any pretense anymore:
Speaking to black and Hispanic journalist associations, Clinton is drawing applause for her policy proposals.
— Byron Tau (@ByronTau) August 5, 2016