What's Happening in CA's Gubernatorial Race Perfectly Captures the State's Politics

What a circus. The California gubernatorial race perfectly captures the state’s chaos—what a mess. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) has finally done what he should have done when he was hit with allegations of sexual misconduct and rape: he dropped out. The Manhattan DA’s office is now investigating, as one of the alleged attacks happened at a charity event in the city back in 2024. There’s a purported video of the congressman with a purported sex worker. He lost all his endorsements and has no way to fundraise; no one is writing checks to someone under a rape investigation. Swalwell, who was never very smart, has finally called it quits.

You’re a freak too https://t.co/IykgFlCPHh
— Harmeet K. Dhillon (@HarmeetKDhillon) April 13, 2026

The community note on this one is a doozy. pic.twitter.com/Amp1yLGSjU
— Juliegrace Brufke (@juliegraceb) April 13, 2026

Now, who’s going to be the frontrunner? Shockingly, that’s Swalwell, which makes me think a yam could win the nomination on Election Day. Former Rep. Katie Porter thinks it could be her, but she’s also a five-alarm fire, with domestic violence allegations to boot. Some believe Kamala Harris might enter the race late. I wish I were kidding. “Release the Kamala” might happen because the whole field sucks. Susan Crabtree has more (via RealClearPolitics):

California Democrats are about to “Release The Kamala!”

I told @RCPolitics reporter @susancrabtree Kamala will jump in once Eric Swalwell imploded… and right on cue, a poll is already asking voters if they’d support Kamala Harris.

Watch what happens next. https://t.co/tK3Ra89Ttx pic.twitter.com/zgAdehy4ro
— Amy Reichert (@amyforsandiego) April 13, 2026

Swalwell had trailed the Republicans at roughly 12%, just 1 point ahead of billionaire Tom Steyer, who garnered 11%, and former Rep. Katie Porter with 7%. Candidates Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, and Antonio Villaraigosa each held 4% of likely voters, while Betty Yee and Tony Thurmond followed, each attracting just 1%.
California Democratic Party officials for the last two months have been so concerned about a shut-out that they’ve urged candidates polling in the single digits to drop out of the race so others could consolidate greater support. Paul Mitchell, a prominent Democratic political data expert, in March identified a 17% to 20% probability of a “nightmare scenario” for Democrats where Hilton and Bianco advance to the general election.
And that was before the Swalwell sex scandal exploded into public view Friday, when a former staffer for the seven-term congressman told the San Francisco Chronicle he sexually assaulted her twice while she was intoxicated.
At first Swalwell pledged to fight what he deemed as inaccurate allegations, even after three other women Friday night came forward to accuse him of sexual misconduct in a CNN interview. By Sunday afternoon, Swalwell announced he was suspending his campaign even as he vowed to continue to fight “serious, false allegations.”
[…]
Now Democrats are in the awkward position of trying to avoid a lockout by regrouping and throwing their support behind the most viable candidate in a field who were all polling behind Swalwell before the cascade of allegations of sexual misconduct.
It won’t be an easy choice. Last fall, Porter’s campaign imploded after a 2021 video surfaced showing her yelling at and cursing at a staffer, “Get out of my f------ shot!” during a virtual interview. Porter acknowledged the incident, admitted her behavior was wrong, and apologized to the staffer, publicly as well.
At 68, Steyer, a billionaire hedge fund founder who invested in private prisons, doesn’t look poor nor fit Democrats’ national messaging against extreme wealth and its push for wealth taxes. While Steyer’s record as an environmental activist is a strength in California, his prior campaign against cash bail conflicts with voters’ recent rejection of soft-on-crime policies. And Steyer’s more than $100 million infusion of his own money into television ads, so far, has failed to propel him into the top-candidate tier.
Xavier Becerra, who served as California attorney general and Health and Human Services Secretary under Biden, may be the safest Democratic choice, though, as a cabinet secretary, Becerra received lackluster reviews from national Democrats for poor management of pandemic-related agencies and a low-profile approach.
[…]
“When Biden imploded [in 2024], they released Kamala, and now that Swalwell has imploded, maybe they’re looking at Kamala for California governor,” Reichert suggested.
“She seems to be everybody’s favorite dark horse candidate,” Davison added with a laugh.