Of course, we want to win the presidential race. That’s a given, but what about the worst-case scenario? We must dwell on the not-so-good outcomes that could happen on election night. If Kamala Harris gets a unified government, it’s over. The good news is that a firewall appears to be forming in the US Senate, where there’s more than a good chance that the Republicans finally flip the upper chamber, preventing cuckoo moves like the elimination of the legislative filibuster. With Republicans looking like they'll be successful in picking off Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) this year, most have concluded that the Senate will flip. But anything can happen, and Democrats can retain the Senate if Kamala wins (via NYT):
Control of the Senate appears likely to flip from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party this fall, as one of the nation’s most endangered Democrats, Senator Jon Tester of Montana, trails his Republican challenger in his bid for re-election, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.
Mr. Tester, who first won election to the Senate in 2006, is winning over moderate and independent voters and running far ahead of the Democrat at the top of the ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris. But as of now, that does not appear to be enough to survive in Montana, a conservative state where former President Donald J. Trump is ahead by 17 percentage points and where control of the Senate hangs in the balance.
Tim Sheehy, a wealthy Republican businessman and a former Navy SEAL who has never held public office, leads Mr. Tester 52 percent to 44 percent, the poll shows. Mr. Sheehy’s lead is a seven-point advantage without rounding.
Democrats currently hold a 51-seat Senate majority. But with Republicans already set to pick up a seat after the retirement of Senator Joe Manchin III, an independent from West Virginia who caucuses with Democrats, the party cannot afford to lose additional seats.
In fact, the party’s only hope is to secure a 50-50 split and to have Ms. Harris win the White House, allowing her running mate, Tim Walz, to provide the crucial tiebreaking vote as vice president.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) suffered a shocking collapse, with her race now in the toss-up column. Her internals have peaked the interests of Democrats, as they only show her up two points, whereas Kamala is trailing Donald Trump by three. There is no path to 270 if Kamala loses Wisconsin.
Ohio is the one state that’s a little weird. I don’t see how Trump can win by eight to ten points, and Republican Bernie Moreno cannot boot Sen. Sherrod Brown. Also, can Larry Hogan pull off an upset in Maryland?
Time will tell, but one thing is clear: it’s not good that Kamala can’t significantly outpace Trump with her $1 billion war chest.
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