One thing cannot be denied as we enter the final stages of this election: Donald Trump is polling better than ever. Sure, the race is close. That was always going to be the case, as Trump also animates the Left. Most Democrats might not like Joe Biden, but they’ll turn out to stop Trump. Yet, Gallup also hurled another interesting find into this cycle: more Americans now identify as Republican than Democrats for the first time in decades.
The former president is polling better than ever in the Midwest, with votes trusting him more to handle the economy, crime, and immigration. Yet, the party identification number points to the climate, and it’s red, not blue. Since the ABC News debate, liberals have cited Nate Silver more since he flipped the Electoral College probability.
Yet, Harris isn’t pulling away from Trump within the margins necessary to win. The Trump vote will likely be underestimated again, which is why Democrats are fraught with anxiety. Other questions in this Gallup survey should give liberals pause and boost confidence for Republicans, especially when it comes to the top issues this cycle. The question about which party would do a better job keeping the nation prosperous was rather eye-opening (via Gallup) [emphasis mine]:
For the first time in decades, more Americans now identify as Republican (48%) than Democratic (45%).
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) September 27, 2024
👉🏻 https://t.co/7PcABiyUFn pic.twitter.com/MXsKg0JKOo
Frank Luntz says Harris' "pay their fair share" line from her Wednesday MSNBC interview is not what voters want to hear.
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) September 26, 2024
"The public demands a detailed plan of action and they’re not getting it from her," the pollster said. pic.twitter.com/dfjO4dfVdM
More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%). Those figures are based on an average of Gallup polls taken during the third quarter (July to September) to minimize poll-to-poll variation in party identification estimates and to provide more reliable comparisons across presidential years given the different timings of the two major party conventions in July, August or September.
Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party. At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population. Democrats have won presidential elections in years in which they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020.
In years when the advantage was narrower -- 2004 and 2016, for example -- Republicans won in the electoral college if not also the popular vote.
[…]
By 46% to 41%, Americans say the Republican Party is better able than the Democratic Party to address what they think is the most important problem facing the country. The top issues Americans currently name as the most important are ones that tend to favor the GOP, including the economy (24%), immigration (22%), the government (17%) and inflation (15%).
This measure has been highly predictive of election outcomes in Gallup trends dating back to 1948. The party rated as better at handling the most important problem has won all but three presidential elections since that year.
[…]
Americans currently give the Republican Party a six-percentage-point edge, 50% to 44%, as the party they think would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous. Gallup has asked this question since 1951. In 16 presidential elections since then when one party has had at least a minimal advantage on this measure, that party has won 12 times.
History is trending toward rewarding Trump and the GOP, but there’s a lot of time for things to get crazy. Right now, the Biden-Harris co-presidency has been slapped with a brutal ICE report showing how these two have let in hordes of criminals, rapists, and murderers. Now, they seem incapable of handling the disaster response to Hurricane Helene. Meanwhile, Trump is on the ground speaking with flood victims.
