FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, once touted by Democrats, has become a source of irritation because, unlike some in this field, he’s not confident that Joe Biden can beat Donald Trump. He’s making Democrats nervous, who need daily reassurances that they’re winning this election, whether that be real or not. MSNBC does well to keep leftist blood pressures low, but that network, with its marginal audience and reach, can only do so much. Biden’s approval ratings remain in the 30s, and Silver mentioned something that’s likely been muttered behind closed doors about the president: he should drop out.
Silver made that known recently, noting that Biden’s numbers are worse than they were in 2020 around this time. The top pollster has been arguing that there are better candidates, and he’s not alone. James Carville has said similar things concerning the candidate crop. Still, Silver highlighting Biden’s abysmal numbers must get the attention of the White House, which appears to be under the impression that they’re cruising to re-election (via NY Post):
Pollster Nate Silver warned Monday that President Biden’s approval ratings are so low that it may be time for him to reconsider seeking re-election in November.
“Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%),” the data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight wrote on X, referencing his organization’s latest average of the president’s job approval numbers.
“Dropping out would be a big risk,” Silver argued. “But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk.”
“Are we there yet? I don’t know,” the polling guru acknowledged. “But it’s more than fair to ask.”
Silver has long been concerned with the 81-year-old incumbent’s ability to beat former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
Silver caused a stir in February when he argued that there might be Democrats who are better equipped to take on the 77-year-old former president. Last month, he suggested Biden should consider stepping aside.
“What’s clearer [in my opinion] is that Democrats would have been better served if Biden had decided a year ago not to seek a second term, which would have allowed them to have some semblance of a primary process and give voters a say among the many popular Democrats across the country,” he said Monday.
Silver noted that Biden is in “MUCH worse shape,” in terms of polling, than he was in 2020 heading into Election Day, when he held leads in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina.
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Trump is now leading in most of those states. As for the candidate crop, I still need to know who Democrats are referring to—because while many are vocal and younger, they don’t have a national constituency. We saw the appalling lack of depth in the 2020 election. Geographic limitations hemmed in Cory Booker and Liz Warren; no one knows who they are outside their home states. Kamala Harris couldn’t outlast Tom Steyer due to internal issues and overall incompetence, traits she brought into the vice president’s office. Eric Swalwell? Are we joking?
Biden is abysmal, but he may be their best. At this point in the calendar, it might be too late for Democrats.
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