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Tipsheet

A Massive Racial Shift Could Screw Democrats and Joe Biden in 2024

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough

Democrats embody a political entitlement that is frankly so outrageous you’d think it’s satire. It goes beyond them thinking that they’re entitled to winning every election— it’s the assumption that they can rest their laurels on non-white voters, thinking, by default, these people would never veer away from the Democratic Party. The ongoing narrative was that these voting blocs would give Democrats a permanent political majority for decades. As it turned out, the Democrats’ insane shift to the Left on racial and cultural issues has led to Latinos, blacks, and Asians drifting away from the Left. Currently, support for Democrats among these groups has dipped to their lowest levels in 60 years.

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It explains why Biden was so bombastic during his unhinged State of the Union address. He needed to go hyper-partisan to give these folks a reason to support him. Yet, going heavy on green energy and abortion isn’t making inroads with Hispanics, and everyone else felt that Biden’s address fell flat. There’s also another reason why these groups aren’t historically tied to the Democratic Party anymore (via Axios) [emphasis mine]: 


By the numbers: Democrats' advantage among Black, Latino and Asian voters is at its lowest since 1960, Financial Times columnist and chief data reporter John Burn-Murdoch found by analyzing a massive set of polling data. 

A New York Times/Siena College poll out March 2 found that President Biden led former President Trump by just 56 points to 44 among non-white Americans. 

That's a group Biden won by almost 50 points when the two men last fought it out for the White House in 2020, Burn-Murdoch points out. 

The intrigue: The drop-off comes even after Trump made several racist and bigoted comments about immigrants and people of color. 

[…] 

Reality check: Not all people of color have deep ties to the Civil Rights Movement. Many of their families arrived in the U.S. after the 1960s, said Republican consultant Mike Madrid, who's based in Sacramento. 

[…] 

Democrats' focus on abortion rights and the environment isn't appealing to some Latinos. The face of abortion tends to be white women. Climate change fights are reduced to just getting an EV. 

"My gente [people] don't want to buy an EV. My people like to ride slow and low," Abeyta said, referring to classic muscle-car low-riders. 

Flashback: Asian Americans proved themselves to be a critical voting bloc in 2022. San Francisco voted overwhelmingly to remove three progressive school board members from office. 

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There’s a lot of time to right the ship, and if it were any other candidate than Biden, I would say this is a fixable dilemma. Focus on job creation and health care, an issue where Democrats have long held the advantage over the GOP. Young voters don’t even care about student loan bailouts, as they’re incensed over the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Non-white working-class workers are starting to join white working-class voters regarding defecting to the Republican Party. 

The 2024 election will be about base turnout, as Trump and Biden are unpopular. For Democrats, this is what happens when you assume people owe you their support without working to keep up with the times. It’s been generations since the Civil Rights Movement, and the ‘GOP is racist’ talking point is so stale and boring that it sails aimlessly into the political ether.

Overall, the GOP doesn’t lecture or sham voters with whom they disagree. And if you're among those in voter blocs that are supposed to vote Democratic and stray away, be prepared for some nasty stuff. 

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