Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza isn’t going to end until the terror organization is destroyed or hobbled to the point where its impact on Gazan civilian life would be de minimis. No more can the strip be used to launch terror attacks against Israel. The IDF will remain in the strip, taking over its security responsibilities for the foreseeable future. And Israel might invade southern Lebanon to curb Hezbollah’s footprint so close to its northern border. Yet, neighboring Egypt has also been monitoring the situation. They deployed tanks to its border with the Gaza Strip, bolstering its presence near the long-closed Rafah border crossing.
The reason for its closure, which isn’t a new development, isn’t shocking: Egyptians don’t want Palestinian terrorists flooding into their country. That’s not just Cairo's position. Every Arab nation knows the Palestinians are a problem, bringing nothing but trouble wherever they go. Reportedly, Arab nations have been quietly telling Israel that they hope their forces wipe out Hamas and that the IDF shouldn’t stop their campaign until the terror group is eliminated. For Egypt, being a neighboring state, they also don’t want millions of Palestinians pouring across the border. It’s an issue that Egyptians are warning Jerusalem could lead to a “rupture” in their relations (via Axios):
Egypt warned the U.S. and Israel that if Palestinian refugees flee into the Sinai as a result of the Israeli military operation in southern Gaza, it could create "a rupture" in relations between Egypt and Israel, according to four U.S. and Israeli officials.
Why it matters: The close relations between Egypt and Israel, especially between the military and intelligence services, have been critically important at several points in the war, including around the release of hostages.
Egypt sees the war in Gaza as a threat to its national security and wants to prevent Palestinian refugees from crossing the border into its territory.
As of 3 December, according to UNRWA, almost 1.9 million people in Gaza, or nearly 85 percent of the population, were estimated to be internally displaced.
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Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority have been concerned since the early days of the war that Israel would push Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt — and not allow them to return after the war.
Israeli officials denied this both in private and in public and gave assurances to Egypt that any wounded Palestinian permitted to leave Gaza for medical treatment would be allowed to return to the enclave.
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Behind the scenes: Israeli officials say that over the last few weeks Egyptian officials, including in the military and in the intelligence service, told their counterparts in the IDF and the Shin Bet that they are highly concerned about the implications of an operation in southern Gaza for Egypt.
The Egyptians expressed anxiety that a crisis on their border with Gaza would result in thousands of Palestinian refugees crossing the border barrier and trying to find shelter in the Sinai, according to three Israeli officials.
One Israeli official said Egyptian officials told their Israeli counterparts they are concerned that militants from Gaza could also then escape into Egypt.
Egypt has already declared that they’re willing to sacrifice millions of its people to keep its border and nation safe against a flood of Palestinian refugees. Israel can’t upset the apple cart with Egypt, whose peace treaty they share is strategically important. It’s not just significant regarding inroads for peace in the region. It was a historic milestone. Egypt became the first Arab country to recognize the Jewish state’s right to exist. They won’t let this deteriorate; we should all hope they don't.
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