Abigail Spanberger Survives Re-Election and Kills GOP Hopes for a Red Wave

Matt Vespa | November 09, 2022 2:10 AM

Republican Yesli Vega was a solid candidate to run against incumbent Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger. It was not enough. Spanberger getting knocked off this cycle would have been one of the signs that a red wave was coming. Instead, Spanberger survived, killing hopes of a robust Republican House majority emerging during the next session of Congress (via Axios):

Decision Desk HQ projects Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) wins re-election to the U.S. House in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District.#DecisionMade: 1:22am EST

Follow more results here: https://t.co/5VrcT8rfqf pic.twitter.com/8D0wZPlIqT
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 9, 2022

Democratic U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger held onto her seat Tuesday evening, per the Associated Press, beating back a challenge by Yesli Vega, a Trump-endorsed county supervisor who made national headlines for her inaccurate comments on pregnancies resulting from rape.
Why it matters: Virginia's 7th Congressional District, which Spanberger has represented since 2019, is one of a handful of closely contested races in the country expected to determine control of the House of Representatives.
Cook Political Report had rated the district "Lean Democrat" until the week before the election, when it shifted its forecast to "toss-up."
Background: Spanberger, a former CIA officer, pitched herself as a moderate in tune with the district's purple politics.
Her campaign focused on bipartisan legislation she supported, including funding police and banning stock trading by members of Congress.

The rest of last night was marked with disappointment, leading to lengthy debates about how to fix the party in the coming days. Now, will Republicans retake the House—The New York Times, as of 2 am, is giving the GOP an 83 percent chance to reclaim the lower chamber. The final numbers will be unknown, but it won’t be a 20-30-plus seat majority.

The 2022 political climate was one of the best for Republicans to have a wave year, and it blew up in their faces. I was too optimistic about our chances last night. I’ll own it.