Democrats face a mountain of issues. They have an inflation crisis that voters seem primed to nail them to the wall over. The supply chain crisis is still ongoing. The economy is not well despite the endless propaganda peddled by the Biden administration. Russia and China are flexing their muscles. The southern border is a mess. COVID is still not shut down. And Build Back Better just got killed by Joe Manchin.
Now, moderate Democrats who cast their lot with the progressive wing and voted for the left-wing action items are saddled with this legislative fumble. Meanwhile, Joe Biden's approval ratings are sinking faster than the Andrea Doria. He can't do the job, and he's going to be his party's albatross around their necks. Is there any hope of salvation?
An analysis of the 2021 elections, specifically the Virginia gubernatorial race, shows yet another divot for Democrats regarding Biden-Youngkin voters. Glenn Youngkin handily beat his Democratic opponent Terry McAuliffe. The analysis by the Democratic Governors Association shows that the party was left in a mirage state about the Old Dominion. These voters are not die-hard Democrats and can and have been persuaded to vote Republican.
Two groups that present a long-term challenge for Democrats are Latinos and black men. It's no longer white men over the age of 40 who were the operative class' favorite target. It's very much those that Democrats thought were cornerstone pieces of their base (via WaPo):
The analysis, which was sent my way and was conducted by the Democratic Governors Association, dives into the Virginia results to extrapolate lessons for Democrats. Its focus is on who these Biden-Youngkin voters are, why they switched and whether this represents a larger category of Biden voters at risk in 2022.
[…]
The analysis’s central finding — one that will worry Democrats — is that a sizable bloc of Biden voters in Virginia cannot be thought of as reliable Democratic voters in any long-term sense. The study, which polled more than 2,400 Virginia voters, found that 9 percent of Biden voters who participated in both the 2020 and 2021 elections switched to Youngkin.
Who are these Biden-Youngkin voters? More than half — 52 percent — were independents, according to the analysis, which was conducted by Democratic pollster Geoff Garin for help in understanding 2022 gubernatorial and congressional races.
Large majorities of these Biden-Youngkin voters were male, were White or had four-year college diplomas. In a worrisome finding for Democrats, around 15 percent were Black and 8 percent were Latino.
“We need to address the long-term problems that exist for Democrats with Latinos and black men,” the analysis concludes.
[…]
Indeed, the analysis suggests many moderate, White, educated and/or independent voters were alienated enough by Trump to support Biden, but only temporarily…
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This isn't new. Public opinion is shiftable sand that prevents any sort of permanent victory from every being clinched by either side. The Republicans thought they could get a permanent majority under Bush through foreign policy and terrorism concerns. The Democrats thought the rise of Obama was the harbinger to the end of conservatism. The 2006 and 2010 midterm elections blew up both those narratives.
The problem with Democrats is that the most vocal, active, and ascendant wing of their base pushes an agenda that isn't popular. Defunding the police is not popular. No one cares about college loan debt, which is a bailout for the privileged professional elite. And removing the SALT cap on taxes is a giveaway to the rich. This is not a left-wing country.
To compound this messaging issue, white college-educated liberals have zero patience or tolerance for people who aren't like them. In fact, they hate people who aren't like them. Not only are these people wrong if they disagree with them, but it also goes deeper into questions of morality and character for these people. The level of emotionalism is so high that it leads to tantrums that would drive away any voter with a conscience. Even attempts at debate are seen as enabling white supremacy. And yes, calling everything from math to SAT scores white supremacy is another way to get people to roll their eyes, tune you out, and walk away.
When they don't get their way, the pitchforks come out, and the party caves. That's why messaging isn't going to change much in 2022. Hell, the White House isn't changing course on anything regarding the economy, and Joe Biden has even worse marks than Jimmy Carter on the economy upon his first year in office.
The far left is so insane, so fixated on pronouns and problems that aren't based in reality that it's starting to make nonwhite voters vote Republican. And if white and nonwhite working-class voters start to vote for the GOP in near equal numbers, well—electoral pain is what's in store for the Democratic Party.
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