They’re doubling down on this fake narrative. It was totally predictable but it’s still amusing. Again, the liberal media being beclowning themselves when they lose elections, they think they’re entitled to win will never be boring—ever. The best part is you see them act as if they’re yards smarter than anyone else. CNN’s Don Lemon is like that when in fact he’s one of the biggest morons on the network. The GOP won, therefore, its white supremacy. It’s like clockwork—but someone decided to comb through precincts in Virginia, where Republicans had an especially good night, and jammed that fake white nationalist narrative through the woodchipper. A voter precinct analysis done by John Blair showed that Gov-elect Glenn Youngkin clinched the largest share of the nonwhite vote in nearly four decades.
1. So, after analyzing every precinct in Virginia...it's obvious that Youngkin won a higher % of non-white votes than any GOP statewide nominee since Holton '69/Coleman '77.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
2. Obviously the definition of non-white has changed since Holton/Coleman when non-white was almost exclusively Black voters. Both Holton and Coleman won roughly 33% of Black voters.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
3. As always, I think the exit polls are wrong. Youngkin didn't win a majority of Hispanic voters. But, the NYT analysis of him winning ~37% of Hispanic voters is probably a tad low as well.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
4. It's nearly impossible to "know"...but, I did look at some Census tract data as well as precinct data. My own conclusion is that he won just north of 40% of Hispanic voters. He probably did even a tad better with Asian voters. But, again, it's impossible to be certain given
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
5. how precinct lines are drawn compared to the actual residences of Asian/Hispanic voters. It looks like he may have improved on Gillespie's showing with Black voters. But honestly, be very wary of what you read about Black voters nowadays when it comes to %s won by a Republican
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
6. I say this b/c a lot of the analysis is based on looking at majority Black precincts. As many demographers have pointed out, the suburbs in Virginia and America are increasingly Black. This geographic dispersion of Black voters isn't talked about enough in politics.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
7. So many of the measurements of Black voters' preferences are stale. I honestly think that's one (of many) reasons you're seeing so many poll misfires across the country that underestimate the GOP. Every pollster applies a "special sauce", and one ingredient in that recipe is
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
8. how to weight Black voters. I look at Wisconsin last year. Pollsters had it heavy towards Biden (WaPo had it +17). It was decided by less than 1%. When you look at heavily white precincts in the state and their heavy Biden vote share, it's obvious that a big error was
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
9. their weighting of Black and Hispanic voters. Trump probably did win over 40% of Hispanic voters in Wisconsin and 11-12% of Black voters. Pollsters were weighting those groups much more heavily towards Biden than they actually voted.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
10. Saying all that, it's safe to say that Youngkin won more non-white raw votes than any statewide GOP nominee in Virginia history. As @SeanTrende always notes, the coalitions of the 2 parties are always changing. What we are seeing emerge is a slow, but sure, GOP improvement
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
11. with nonwhite voters both in Virginia and in the nation.
— Stauntonian (@JohnBlairII) November 5, 2021
Blair said that the initial reports from The New York Times showing Youngkin nabbing 37 percent of the Hispanic vote might be a bit low. It was probably in the low-40s. Initially, there were reports that Youngkin got most of the Hispanic vote. That’s been filtered down, but even still, 37 percent is solid. He still goes through the nuances of the voter precincts and racial politics, but the conclusion is clear.
“It's safe to say that Youngkin won more non-white raw votes than any statewide GOP nominee in Virginia history,” he wrote. “As Sean Trende always notes, the coalitions of the 2 parties are always changing. What we are seeing emerge is a slow, but sure, GOP improvement with nonwhite voters both in Virginia and in the nation.”
Josh Barro, a columnist for Business Insider, added “racial polarization of voting keeps declining and just calling Republican voters a bunch of white supremacists when they win -- saying any opposition to Democrats on education boils down to racism -- is clearly not going to address that.”
Racial polarization of voting keeps declining and just calling Republican voters a bunch of white supremacists when they win -- saying any opposition to Democrats on education boils down to racism -- is clearly not going to address that. https://t.co/Qerki99AfD
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) November 5, 2021
Yeah, looks like another liberal narrative took a punch to the mouth, but you already knew that.
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