It's one of the great scenes in the film My Cousin Vinny, when Joe Pesci’s character talks about the “yuts.” Of course, he meant youths. And in elections, these votes matter especially for Democrats. Young people were energized by Barack Obama, yes. But that era is over. It’s done. Hillary Clinton had the mindset that the Obama coalition was transferable. It wasn’t. And right now, it appears the youth vote is simply not energized to vote this year, especially for Joe Biden. If early vote totals are down, you know these kids aren’t showing up Election Day. In Minnesota, only three percent of ballots came from the 18-24 age bloc. To boot, we have a survey indicating that maybe one in three young Democrats are voting for…Donald Trump. College Finance did a general survey of this demographic, asking respondents about issues facing this age group. There were questions about the economy, but also COVID, student loan debt, and “the security of America’s economic future.” You can read the full study here, but how did these Gen Z voters break down for their 2020 decision:
Donald Trump received much more support from his own party than Joe Biden did from his, at least as far as Gen Z voters are concerned. While 75% of Republicans wanted to stick with Trump, Democrats were not as resoundingly behind Biden. In fact, more than a third of Democrats (34.4%) said they intended to vote for Trump. As one 21-year-old man articulated, “I think President Trump has done an excellent job making people from both sides skeptical of the government and its intentions.” A 22-year-old woman voiced concern over “memory issues” from which Biden may suffer in office.
Biden certainly had some supporters, however. Almost a quarter of Republican Gen Z voters intend to check his name in the ballot box this year, and 40% of those without a political affiliation would be choosing him as well. As one 19-year-old woman shared, “I feel that unseating the current president is a large priority right now, so while I don’t completely agree with many of the Democratic candidate’s values, I believe he is the better choice …”
More than 1 in 10 Gen Zers intended to not vote at all, however.
The study also noted that nearly three in five Gen Z voters will be voting for the economy over their personal values. Additionally, the same margin feels that Donald Trump will best handle Post-COVID-19 economic stability, including over four in ten Democrats and almost four in five Republicans. Overall, 52% believe Trump is the candidate that will best ensure the security of America’s economic future. Now, we have to be upfront here. The survey was less than 300 respondents. It was 252 to be exact.
“Survey data has certain limitations related to self-reporting. These limitations include telescoping, exaggeration, and selective memory,” they said. “We didn’t weigh our data or statistically test our hypotheses. This was an exploratory study of Generation Z’s outlook on politics and financial security.” Well, the sample size is pretty small. The holy trinity is usually a minimum of 300 people for a congressional race, 600 for a statewide race, and 1,000 for a national poll. Yet, I’ve seen some polls from mainstream outlets with polls with shoddy sample sizes as well.
1) Highlights from Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute (DI) interview. Basham predicts a Trump win:
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 1, 2020
Early vote supports DI’s findings of a Trump win; youth and minority vote down
Trump could do better than DI's predictionshttps://t.co/sLJMDneYxR
2) Lockdowns are a big issue; many who do not like Trump hate lockdowns more (like youth)
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 1, 2020
More 2016 Gary Johnson voters going for Trump than Biden
More undecideds breaking for Trump than Biden
3) “Shy Trump Voter” is often a "she."
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 1, 2020
Many women have bought guns. Gun owners often vote Republican
Trump has real shot in Nevada
4) Trump’s superior ground game could mean 1-2 pts in some states
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 1, 2020
College closings have hurt Dem vote
Yet, let’s shift gears and look at the youth who are voting right now. For starters, more 2016 Gary Johnson voters are breaking for Trump as are undecided voters. And while scores of voters hate Trump, they hate the COVID lockdowns, even more, especially young voters. Democracy Institute Poll, which nailed Brexit, released their final results showing an Electoral College landslide for Trump. Nevada is in play due to the surge in new gun owners. And they too, like College Finance and others, noted that youth enthusiasm to vote is down. A recent Democracy Institute poll projected one million fewer votes from young people. Well, it sure looks that way right now, and those who are voting, a good chunk is breaking for Trump. It’s true. Electing Joe Biden will usher in lockdown city for all with Dr. Anthony Fauci as the high lord medical chancellor.
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