As we’ve said before, we’re either going to be really right or really wrong come Election Day. Folks, you know where I stand; MAGA all the way. But poll after poll has been showing Biden with insane leads. Leads so insane that even the Biden camp is putting it out there that they’re not ahead of Donald Trump by double-digits. If so, Biden and Obama wouldn’t be flocking to Michigan on Saturday. Pennsylvania would also be locked up as well. It’s not. Yet, one state will determine a lot for Joe Biden, and that’s Florida. If Biden loses the state, his chances of winning the election sink below 50 percent. Right now, it looks like Democrats are heading for an Electoral College bloodbath viewing the early vote totals. Larry Schweikart has been tracking these numbers. Not only is he bullish on Trump winning Florida, but Arizona is starting to look excellent as well.
FL In Person Early Vote— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 27, 2020
Ds went into election day 2016 with an 88,000 lead. Rs are 266,482 from going into election day even.
Trump won FL by 113,000
Rs now just 153,483 from covering Trump's margin.
This will be bloody. They don't even see it coming.
Miami-Dade is now R +5,500.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 27, 2020
Palm Beach is R+670
Rs outperforming in Sumter by 3%.
AZ Rs chewing away the lead. Watch out. Rs vote on election day in AZ.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 28, 2020
Ds +75,000 vs. over 110,000 just three days ago.
Florida is likely going to count its votes fast on Nov 3... Models I look at suggest Biden's chance of winning the prez if he wins FL is ~95%. It drops below 50% if he loses FL.— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 29, 2020
And this comes after Trafalgar, the most accurate swing state pollster in 2016, released new surveys with Trump taking the lead in Pennsylvania, and Biden now only leads Trump by 0.4 percent in Wisconsin. Nationally, Rasmussen has Trump with a one-point lead, with his approval rating at 52 percent. For comparison, Obama’s was 47 percent six days from Election Day in 2012. PollWatch is another good follow to clear away the liberal noise regarding the polls.
Biden Lead Shaved to 0.4% in Wisconsin: https://t.co/NZGmZEyhc5— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 28, 2020
New Rasmussen Poll Shows Trump +1 Nationally:— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 28, 2020
"The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters."https://t.co/MKuABUhBG9
6 Days Before Election TRUMP APPROVAL--52%— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 28, 2020
5 pts higher than Obama's approval on this day--Oct 28, 2012 (Obama's re-election year):
Trump (10/28/20): 52%
Obama (10/28/12): 47%
(per Rasmussen Reports, daily tracker of both presidencies)https://t.co/9nchoD7qKV
BREAKING: Most Likely Voters say Joe Biden consulted about & perhaps profited from his son Hunter's overseas business deals including at least one involving a company in mainland China.— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 26, 2020
Majority of every demographic group - except one - agrees.
Marked crosstabs & story below https://t.co/RdHDe2AMKd pic.twitter.com/fhIqilLKRs
Trump takes narrow lead in PENNSYLVANIA. https://t.co/hugAlj6vWy— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 27, 2020
Projecting Vote % Win--North Carolina— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 25, 2020
2008 Dem Voter edge over Rep: 864,253
Obama win: 0.32%
2012 D edge: 818,443
Romney win: 2.04% (+2.36% for Rep from 08)
2016 D edge: 646,246
Trump win: 3.66% (+1.62% for R from 12)
2020 D edge: 398,953 (Rep close gap by 247,293 from 16)
Updated election map from StatesPoll. Trump lead increases. https://t.co/HzKCmjCt49— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 25, 2020
And there's some good news coming from Colorado as well:
UPDATE: CO— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 28, 2020
Rs early vote now down by only 9%. Two weeks ago it was 30%, and just yesterday 10%.
This is astounding.
These are suppression polls. I can’t take anyone seriously who still uses registered voter samples because they don’t want to guess what the electorate might look like this cycle. We’re expecting to see one million fewer young people vote. Suburban GOP voters are oversampled due to their hostility towards Trump. Trump Democrat and rural GOP zip codes are bypassed, and about a quarter of all Trump rally attendees didn’t vote in 2016. To boot, some polls have college-educated voters representing over half of the respondents. That’s not an accurate gauge on anything within the sociopolitical realm.
I’ll leave you with a USC pollster concluding that Trump will win re-election, despite the deluge of liberal media polls showing Biden with these outrageous double-digit leads.
Luzerne Co. PA withdrew its motion for ACB to recuse on the PA vote counting.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 28, 2020
WINNING. Folks, I'm tellin' ya, they know this is over.
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