The Democrats' 'Ultimate Nightmare Scenario': Trump Loses By 5 Million Votes.... And Still Wins Re-Election

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Posted: Jul 19, 2019 5:50 PM
The Democrats' 'Ultimate Nightmare Scenario': Trump Loses By 5 Million Votes.... And Still Wins Re-Election

Source: AP Photo/Alex Brandon

When Hillary Clinton officially became a two-time presidential loser in 2016, the Left had a meltdown. Donald Trump had won and the former first lady will never become president. Racism, sexism, misogyny—the entire fruit salad of politically correct craziness that the Democrats chows down on a daily basis has spewed all over in an epic tantrum that has continued to this day. Some on the Left actually understood why Clinton lost: she was a terrible candidate. Yet, with 2020 on the horizon, the Democratic clown car is massive. The energy from the Left is at an all-time high. They want this man out of office. The problem is that the enthusiasm advantage Democrats had in 2018 is going to be neutralized with Trump at the top of the ticket. And the states where Democrats are gaining voters are worthless in the general election math for next year. So, start the clock, folks. 

We could have a Chernobyl-like meltdown over Trump’s probably second term and the Electoral College again. Democrats are more than willing to destroy rules and regulations of institutions to merely say that his tweets were bad. Over a second presidential loss, there is no telling what liberal America will resort to ensure that the GOP will never win again. Remember, Democrats think they’re entitled to win every election. We already have far-left whackos attacking ICE facilities and attacking journalists. This could be very entertaining, but, as always, one where we must all remain vigilant David Wasserman broke down the numbers. Trump could win barely 47 percent of the vote, lose by 5 million votes, but still win re-election, thanks to the Electoral College math. As someone said on social media, whose name eludes me, our system of electing presidents favors geographic diversity. That is something absent with the Democrats and their far-left agenda. Oh, and Trump could lose Pennsylvania and Michigan and still win a second term (via NBC News):

The nation's two most populous states, California and Texas, are at the heart of Democrats' geography problem.

Both behemoths are growing more diverse at a much faster rate than the nation — owing to booming Asian and Latino populations — and are trending toward Democrats. Yet neither blue California nor red Texas would play a pivotal role in a close 2020 election, potentially rendering millions of additional Democratic votes useless.

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Democrats' potential inefficiencies aren't limited to California and Texas: The list of the nation's top 15 fastest-diversifying states also includes the sizable yet safely blue states of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Washington and Oregon.

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In 2016, Trump's victory hinged on three Great Lakes states he won by less than a point: Michigan (0.2 percent), Pennsylvania (0.7 percent) and Wisconsin (0.8 percent). All three of these aging, relatively white states have some of the nation's highest shares of white voters without college degrees — a group trending away from Democrats over the long term. And the nonwhite share of the eligible electorate in each of the three has increased at only a quarter to a half of the rate it has surged in California, Texas and Nevada.

Democrats eagerly point out that they swept Senate and governors' races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2018. And they flipped two seats in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania on their way to taking back the House.

But Trump could lose Michigan and Pennsylvania and still win the Electoral College, so long as he carries every other place he won in 2016. And Wisconsin didn't provide as clear a verdict in 2018. Even with favorable turnout in a "blue wave," Democrats won Wisconsin's governor's race only by a point and failed to gain a House seat. If enough Trump voters who sat out 2018 — particularly white working-class men — return to the polls in 2020, the Badger State could easily stay red.

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Democrats' strongest Sun Belt pickup opportunity in 2020 may actually be Arizona. Its electorate isn't very rural and its share of nonwhite voting-age citizens is growing at the third-fastest rate in the country, behind only Nevada and California.

Unlike in Florida, where Democrats lost a Senate seat, Arizona Democrats picked up a Senate seat in 2018. And North Carolina looks likely to remain competitive as the Research Triangle, Charlotte and the Piedmont Triad continue to attract young, left-leaning professionals.

Together, these six states — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are best-positioned to decide which candidate reaches the magic 270 Electoral votes.

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…the concentration of demographic change in noncompetitive states, particularly California and Texas, threatens to further widen the chasm between the popular vote and the Electoral College, easing his path. Trump could once again win with less than 47 percent, a victory threshold far below the share of the popular vote the Democratic nominee might need.

The ultimate nightmare scenario for Democrats might look something like this: Trump loses the popular vote by more than 5 million ballots, and the Democratic nominee converts Michigan and Pennsylvania back to blue. But Trump wins re-election by two Electoral votes by barely hanging onto Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Maine's 2nd Congressional District — one of the whitest and least college-educated districts in the country.

With the current 2020 crop, can anyone beat Trump? No. There is not a single Democrat who could beat Trump with this map. Biden is hemorrhaging support after Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) outflanked him on busing. Most of the candidates are on life support, with many running out of money as we head into the second round of debates at the end of the month. At the end of this, the antics of Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), and Ayanna Pressely (D-MA) could define the Democratic Party. Trump has already done a good job in accomplishing that feat, forcing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to re-embrace this far-left Leninist Girl Scout Troop from hell when he attacked them on Twitter. Pelosi had been trying to create a buffer zone between them and the rest of the party. The polling shows why. This crew is widely unpopular, their agenda is viewed as trash, and this could spell certain doom in the races Democrats need to hold to keep the House. Oh, and this poll was done from voters from these very swing House districts. Open borders, taxpayer-funded abortion up until the moment of birth, gun confiscation, 70 percent tax rates, reproductive justice for trans-women (biological males), bashing police, and adopting an authoritarian ethos concerning political correctness isn’t a recipe for success, but the Democrats are doubling-down on it. 

Say it with me: Four more years. Four more years.