GOP Early Exits: Indiana Is Prime Trump Territory

Matt Vespa | May 03, 2016 6:25 PM

With the polls about to close across most of Indiana, early exits show that it’s fertile ground for Trump. According to ABC News, 60 percent want a political outsider, which isn’t bucking the trend from past primaries. Regarding illegal immigration nearly half support deportation of illegal immigrants, whereas 41 percent, on average, supported the policy. The prolonged economic torpor under the Obama administration has probably boosted voter yearning for a political outsider. In Indiana, 70 percent of voters are worried about the direction of the country, although the number for those who are angry with the government is lower than in previous contests:

Attributes: Trump’s done very well in previous primaries among those looking for a candidate who “tells it like it is” or “can bring needed change,” and more recently, those focused on electability. He’s had a hard time with those, instead, who mainly care about a candidate who shares their values. Preliminary exit poll results in Indiana point to about the typical split in the size of each group, with change and plain talk voters accounting for more than half the total.

Time of decision: Early deciders are another group to watch: Trump’s done especially well all season among voters who made up their minds more than a month ago. They account for nearly half of Indiana GOP voters in preliminary exit poll results, similar to their average in previous contests.

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GOP unity: Animosity within Republican ranks is on display again. As in New York and Pennsylvania, a majority of Indiana GOP primary voters – nearly six in 10 in preliminary exit poll results – say the campaign has mostly divided the party, while only four in 10 instead think it’s “energized” it. Trump supporters are most likely to say the contest has energized the party, while those supporting Cruz are much more apt to say the party’s been divided.

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Midwestern demographics: Based on preliminary exit poll results, among key GOP groups, a third are “very” conservative, six in 10 are evangelicals and a majority attends church weekly. Still, weekly churchgoing evangelicals – a better group for Cruz in the past – account for well under half of all Indiana GOP primary voters, about four in 10.