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Frank Luntz Has Some Good News About General Election Polling Trends

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Posted: Aug 24, 2020 11:45 PM
Frank Luntz Has Some Good News About General Election Polling Trends

Source: AP Photo

Taking a look at the national general election polls over the past several months is reminiscent of 2016—the Democratic nominee is ahead in every single one of the surveys. Many battleground states are a different story, however. In some of them, President Trump is tied with Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, within the margin of error, or behind by just a few percentage points. Fox News's Jesse Watters spoke with pollster Frank Luntz about how Americans should interpret the surveys just a few months before the election.

Luntz's main advice was to take all of them "with a grain of salt."

"[I] t's particularly dangerous to talk about polling before the debate because so much can change," he said. "And we've had half of the elections, going back to 1968, one-half of them have seen a change of 10 points or more between the candidate who is leading on Labor Day and what happens on Election Day."

What he advised people to look at instead are what changes between surveys over a seven, 10, and two-week period of time. When that's done, the "trend for Donald Trump has actually been favorable, it's been positive over the last three, four weeks."

He did offer a word of warning, however. If the election were held today, Biden would win, Luntz believes, but, as he said in the beginning, a lot can happen between now and Election Day.

"But we've got the Republican Convention coming up, we've got the debates coming up, and the trend is definitely, over the past couple of weeks, in Donald Trump's favor," he said in conclusion.