The New York Times published their final 2024 presidential election poll on Sunday, just two days ahead of Election Day November 5.
"Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump stayed deadlocked to the finish in the final New York Times/Siena College polls of the 2024 presidential election, though there may be a hint she has ticked up in the final stretch," the New York Times reports. "The race remains essentially even across the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency."
The results show Harris ahead, but there's a big catch: the poll is probably wrong.
"Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again,” the NYT concedes. "A word of caution: Hypothetically, many of these 'late deciders' might have told a pollster earlier that they were Harris voters — if only we had called them at the time and asked them to formulate an opinion they hadn’t yet made. As a result, the responses to this question don’t necessarily explain the shift in the polls — even if they do align with the trend in this case."
James Blair, Trump 2024 Poltical Director, reacts to the final NYT/Siena Poll:
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 3, 2024
"In all of the battleground states, they've set the electorate to the left of 2020, which doesn't comport with what we know, which is that all of these electorates have moved to the right.”
In 2020… pic.twitter.com/zLLiTgIbjq
Kamala doesn’t cross 50% in a single state in the last NYT poll — and her “leads” are all within the margin of error.
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) November 3, 2024
The pollster admits Trump voters were 16x less likely to respond and doesn’t rule out a 2020 repeat.
Yeah, this is a great poll for Trump. pic.twitter.com/RxIPm4N3Mt
Political veterans aren't convinced Republican Trump voters are being accurately represented.
“I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. They are missing something.. I think there’s a ‘wavelet’ of Republican enthusiasm out there,” Fox guest @alexcast notes to @BretBaier pic.twitter.com/KMxp2Wfgai
— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) November 3, 2024