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It's not going to work that way this fall if Democrats don't win a big enough margin in the mid-term elections to overcome the members of their caucus who are quietly refusing to endorse Nancy Pelosi... five weeks before the election even takes place. Those moderate members are publicly refusing to endorse Pelosi now, because distancing themselves from the Speaker is the best thing they can do to save their skins on November 2. There has never been a better display of how scared Democrats are of being associated with the Obama-Pelosi agenda.
If Democrats keep control of the chamber, they may have a much more narrow majority, and moderates think they will have more leverage to pressure Pelosi toward the middle. Although unlikely, moderates could team up with Republicans and create enough of a coalition to oppose Pelosi for Speaker and nominate someone else when the House reorganizes next year.
Vulnerable Members from conservative-leaning districts would rather “not have to answer the Pelosi question,” a former Blue Dog Coalition aide said.
Pelosi has long held a powerful grip on her Caucus, but her influence has taken a hit in recent months, particularly as Democratic prospects for November have worsened. Even so, no Democrat has talked about challenging her.
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It would be a bombshell for a Democratically-controlled Congress to vote for a Republican speaker -- unprecedented, and probably impossible. More likely, but still alarming, would be a smaller group of moderate Democrats usurping Pelosi's leadership, and installing a more tempered Democrat in her place.
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