CNN analyst Harry Enten had some not so great news for Democrats heading into this year’s midterm elections.
During a recent broadcast, Enten explained that while Democrats lead in the generic congressional ballot by about six points, their advantage is far weaker compared to past midterm elections under a Republican president.
He pointed out that the numbers show Democrats still have a favorable chance at regaining control of the House. But the Senate might be a different story. Enten noted that “this lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president.”
Democrats led by eight points in 2018 and 11 points in 2006. Enten said “you’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead — and they’re just only sort of, slightly ahead.”
The analyst further noted that the Senate map favors GOP candidates. “I think five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map.” Republicans could still win the Senate by 51 to 49 by holding seats in states President Donald Trump won by more than 10 points. Enten emphasized that during the Trump era, there were “zero, zero, zero times” when a party flipped a Senate seat in a state the other party had previously won by double digits in a presidential race.
GOP would win the Senate with this map. Let’s say Republicans only hold onto the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points. That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49. Why? Because what you would see is that the Democrats would flip North Carolina, they would flip Maine, but Republicans would hold on to Ohio, they’d hold on to Texas, and they’d hold on to Alaska because Donald Trump won all those states by greater than 10 points.
CNN's Harry Enten just threw cold water on Dems chances of winning both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections.
— Jeff Charles, Asker of Questions🏴 (@jeffcharlesjr) April 6, 2026
Democrats lead the generic ballot by ~5 points — but that's historically low.
In 2018 it was 8 points. In 2006 it was 11.
With Trump's approval at -20 to… pic.twitter.com/SsDBj7h1st
Other polls produced similar results. RealClearPolling’s generic ballot average also showed Democrats holding a six-point advantage. Silver Bulletin’s polling tracker placed Democrats ahead by 5.5 points.
Voters are most concerned about the economy, unemployment and jobs, and foreign conflicts, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in March. An increasing percentage of Americans named the war in Iran as the number-one issue.
Usually the opposite party of the one that occupies the White House wins back at least one chamber of Congress during the midterms. But the fact that the Democrats’ lead is smaller than usual shows that Americans don’t exactly have much faith that putting them in charge will lead to much in the way of change.
Perhaps voters haven’t forgotten what things were like with Joe Biden in the White House and Democrats in charge of Congress. It would explain the hesitancy among those who might have criticisms of how Republicans are governing but aren’t sure Democrats would do any better.
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