Is the Two-Party System In Danger? Here's What the Data Says.

A new report suggests that faith in America’s two-party system could gradually be waning as more voters are identifying as Independents.

An NBC News analysis of voter registration data showed that 32 percent of registered voters in states and territories that report his data registered as Independents. This represents a nine-point increase from 23 percent in 2000.

The partisan affiliation data, compiled by Ballotpedia, is available for the 33 states, territories and districts that publish registration data by voter party affiliation.
But the trend is also reflected in broader national exit polls. The 2024 election polls showed that for the first time, self-identified independents outnumbered Democrats and were equal with Republicans.

A political analyst told NBC News that “people are just disappointed in politics and disappointed in party politics.” She referred to the recent “No Kings” protests as an example showing that people can organize without belonging to a major party.

The Democratic Party has experienced most of the losses, according to the report, with more former Democratic voters registering as Independents. In fact, NBC News notes that “the share of registered voters made up by registered Democrats has declined every year since 2000 across the jurisdictions with data.”

The losses haven’t been quite the same for the Republican Party, but there are still many former GOP voters who are now Independents.

The decline has accelerated in recent years, as the party’s share of the registered voters in jurisdictions with available data fell 1.2 percentage points from 2024 to 2025, among the largest one-year decreases since 1998. Republicans’ voter share has also declined overall, although it has increased since 2021.

It’s also worth noting that most (56 percent) of Independents identified as “moderate” instead of “conservative” or “liberal” in 2024.

Nevertheless, the Republican and Democratic parties are still the dominant force in American politics. Most Americans still vote for one of the two parties even if they are registered as Independents. “In the 2024 presidential election, independents broke 49% for Vice President Kamala Harris and 46% for Donald Trump,” the report explains.

In the end, registering as Independent seems to do little to challenge the power of the two parties with which Americans have grown dissatisfied. People who run as Independents face a myriad of hurdles and obstacles, making it nearly impossible for them to win.

Maybe you’re reading this and thinking, “Well, I’ll just run as an independent or third party candidate to take on the establishment.” Sadly, that door is locked down too.

In Arkansas, the system is rigged to keep alternatives off the ballot. Independents must gather thousands… https://t.co/nukPxOAgRO
— Michael White - Arkansas Liberty (@MW4Liberty) June 24, 2025