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Tipsheet

Governor Newsom's Budget Agreement Could Cost Him His Run for Presidency

AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli

California Governor Gavin Newsom and his fellow Democratic leaders announced a 2024 Budget Agreement to help make up for the state’s budget deficit, rousing frustration among Democrats and threatening his plan to be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.

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After Newsom announced California’s $100 billion budget surplus in 2022, the governor found himself dealing with a $46.8 billion deficit only two years later, according to The Washington Post. In an attempt to steer California away from another recession, Newsom negotiated with other Democratic leaders to create an agreement to pass a $300 billion budget. However, the agreement has received pushback from people on the left.

In May, Newson announced an initial budget proposal that included cuts to social services. People on the left, such as Scott Graves, the budget director of California Budget and Policy Center, were not happy with Newsom’s proposal because they believed it did not match the governor's “liberal campaign promises.” 

Graves, along with other Democrats, proposed closing prisons instead of reducing social services, The Washington Post reported. California’s Legislative Analyst's Office claimed about 15,000 unused beds across the prison system. The state can save $1 billion by shutting down five prison facilities. 

The unfavorable response from the left caused Newsom to negotiate with other Democratic leaders on a new budget proposal that would best satisfy the party. The new agreement invests in many social programs, including "Encampment Grants" and "Homeless Housing Assistance and Prevention Program," but it does not completely satisfy Graves and other Democrats because it does not include closing prisons.

“It’s a no-brainer,” Graves said. “Why are we spending a billion dollars a year to keep 15,000 beds empty in our state prison system? It’s a massive waste of resources.”

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The agreement also raised concerns because some people believe it will not stop fiscal instability, The Washington Post reported. For instance, Lee E. Ohanian, an economics professor at the University of California at Los Angeles, said California has increased spending by more than 60 percent over the last five years on “high-profile” issues– mostly housing and homelessness–but Californians have yet to see any change in the problems. 

In April, Cal Matters reported that an audit revealed California has been failing to "track and analyze" spending on homelessness programs. The California Interagency Council on Homelessness, an agency tasked with gathering and analyzing spending on homelessness and housing, has not tracked California's spending since 2021. Therefore, California leaders are allocating money to programs that may or may not improve or benefit the country. 

The California budget deficit threatens Newsom’s political future. Still, if done properly, he can use it to his advantage to gain popularity and trust from voters, according to The Washington Post. For example, Newson can say the 2024 Budget Agreement exemplifies his ability to go against his own party to make "tough" decisions. 

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