Two of the most surprising results of the 2024 presidential election emanated from the New York tristate area. First, Kamala Harris' victory margin in New York was smaller than Donald Trump's victory margin in either Florida or Texas. The same applies to Illinois, by the way. Second, we had New Jersey. The Garden State had been reliably blue for decades, and no one really viewed it as a battleground state last cycle. And yet, when the dust settled, Kamala Harris only carried New Jersey by six percentage points -- the same margin as Virginia, where the Trump campaign spent some time and resources. Within New Jersey, Trump won diverse, working class, generally Democratic Passaic County. Blue-trending Bergen County ended up being quite close. In every presidential election since 1996, with the exception of the post-9/11 2004 race, Democrats have won New Jersey by double digits. But not in 2024. A lot of Democrats around the country and in the state were unnerved by what they saw.
I'd imagine those same operatives cannot be thrilled with fresh data like this either:
Trump approval rating split 47%-47% in New Jersey, a state that swung sharply right in 2024 — Emerson poll pic.twitter.com/gUig2UKZLh
— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) May 15, 2025
NJ Poll by Emerson
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 15, 2025
President Trump
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 47%
Governor Murphy
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 45%
——
53% prefer the next Governor of NJ to work with the Trump administration, while 47% prefer the next Governor to stand up to the Trump administration. https://t.co/u8OO3LBD42 pic.twitter.com/XmKmLa8Xce
Per Emerson, Trump's job approval rating is seven percentage points higher than that of outgoing Democratic Governor Phil Murphy (remember this very weird boast and retreat from Murphy earlier in the year), and is also five net points better. A majority of voters in the Garden State want the next governor to work with Trump, as opposed to offering 'Resistance.' Something is happening in Jersey. I'm not overly optimistic that this movement will carry into this year's off-year elections there, especially because Democrats have proven themselves to be a low-propensity turnout machine. But one never knows. Meanwhile, in case you missed it, let's check in on neighboring New York:
New - Net approval poll - New York
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) May 11, 2025
🔴 Trump: -9
🔵 Kathy Hochul: -19
Gray House - RV - 4/28
Could true-blue New York be going purple? One stunning new poll says yes, the Daily Mail reported, and that could be bad news for Gov. Kathy Hochul...The poll shockingly showed that President Donald Trump has a higher approval rating than Hochul in the reliably Democratic state, with 43% approving of the president’s performance and 56% disapproving...The publication touted the poll under a headline that said that the deep-blue state was “swinging aggressively to the right.” ... Sixty percent of voters statewide say it’s “time for someone new,” including 75% of independents and even 34% of Democrats, the survey showed. The poll showed GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik within striking distance of Hochul if Stefanik decides to run for governor. Forty-six percent of voters said they would vote for Hochul, while 40% said they would support Stefanik. Fourteen percent of voters were undecided.
In 2022, Hochul barely staved off Lee Zeldin's challenge by mid-single digits in a race that closed late. Ultimately, Democrats may have an advantage in lower turnout elections, unless Republicans manage to convert more of their supporters into habitual, reliable voters. As for the midterms, those dynamics may come down to how the economy is doing next year, and whether Democrats over-perform their own unpopularity. On those fronts, I'll leave you with this:
An eventful day — could Trump be threading the needle? From tonight’s panel, with @bretbair anchoring from my Kingdom of birth 🇸🇦 (to 🇺🇸 parents)… pic.twitter.com/Yg0KuPu9Ih
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) May 14, 2025
“Voters might not like Donald Trump, but they really don’t like the Democrats.”
— bubba atkinson (@BubbaAtkinson) May 14, 2025
From @PeterHamby in @PuckNews pic.twitter.com/qpFXT3p6Xm
