As I've written about on multiple occasions, if I were the Trump campaign, the Democrats' superior ballot and turnout operations would keep me up at night. Even if Republicans have closed that gap -- we'll see if their claims to this effect actually play out -- Democrats likely still have a moderate-to-significant systemic advantage on this crucial front. Elections, after all, are much more than giant popularity contests. In a close contest, the party that can best affect the composition of the electorate has a good shot at grinding out a victory. As of right now, that advantage seems to lie with the Democrats, whose major and national campaigns are also exceptionally well-funded. On the other side of the ledger, the worry that would rob me of sleep if I were on the Harris campaign is polling. The good news for Team Kamala is that that've erased Donald Trump's sustained leads over Joe Biden (I think it's inarguable that Trump was on a path to win decisively), and in fact took the lead from him weeks ago. The other good news is that some of the national and state level polls show her winning by margins that might approach a level of feeling comfortable.
The rough news, though, is that her average national lead is nowhere close to the comfort zone. The RealClearPolitics average gives her a lead of 1.8 percentage points (up over 2 points in the five-way race, as of this morning), with several major pollsters producing recent national numbers with her ahead by exactly one point. Typically Democrat-friendly Quinnipiac is one. Yahoo's pollster is another. Here's the latest example:
🇺🇲 National poll by @Fabrizio_Lee (R) & GBAO (D) for @WSJ
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 29, 2024
🟦 Harris: 48% [+1]
🟥 Trump: 47% [-2]
Full Ballot - 🔵 Harris 47-45%
[+/- change vs 7/23-25]
——
August 24-28 | RVs | MoE: ±2.5%https://t.co/Dm6bZyO4K8 pic.twitter.com/UjIKUw24oK
What does that mean as we look toward November? Well, if the patterns from 2016 and 2020 hold once again -- and that may be the single most important and consequential 'if' of 2024 -- Trump would be in a strong position to win the election. This is a Democratic strategist sounding the alarm:
Ultimately, Harris’ strong-arming of the news media up to now seemed rooted in the siren song that she’s ahead and can therefore get away with it. This is a delusion bordering on malpractice. Consider the following: In the Real Clear Politics polling average, Harris is up by 1.7 points nationally; but Biden was up 6.9 at this point in the campaign in 2020 and Hillary Clinton was up 6.0 in 2016. In Wisconsin, Harris is up 1 point, but Biden was up 3.5 points and Clinton 11.5 points at the same point in their campaigns there. Trump is up 0.2 points in Pennsylvania, but Biden was up 5.8 point and Clinton was up a whopping 9.2 points on this date. And in Michigan, Harris is up 2 points, while Biden was up 2.3 and Clinton was up 9 points at the same point. If the polling errors favoring Democrats in 2020 and 2016 persist, then Trump is probably still in the lead.
Again, an absolutely massive 'if.' Here's a right-leaning analysis highlighting the same effect:
This is the polling effect I keep thinking about. Will the 2016 & 2020 patterns reemerge this year, or has the Trump margin underestimation issue been resolved? https://t.co/HgYpQL6eFN pic.twitter.com/IaU7rX1vs7
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 2, 2024
The perforated red lines showed Trump's expected performance being far worse than what actually played out, even in places Biden ended up winning. Will that happen again? It's impossible to know, but it very well might:
Kamala Harris, the 2024 Democratic nominee, should be cruising right now, if you believe the narrative some of her supporters are trying to spin. But the numbers tell a different story, one that’s causing more than a few sleepless nights in the Democratic war room. As we’ve noted now for the last few weeks: Kamala is UNDER-PERFORMING. Harris’s lead in the national polls is slim—just 1.8 points, according to RealClearPolitics...We’re seeing narrow margins in swing states and even some cases where Trump is leading or the race is deadlocked. For a party that thought it had learned its lesson from the past two cycles, these numbers are starting to feel all too familiar...the 2024 polling data is showing us a similar pattern. Harris is up, but just barely. And in those all-important swing states, the numbers are nothing short of nerve-wracking for Democrats.
What's driving the numbers?
1. Shy Trump Voters: Even now, the phenomenon persists. Many Trump supporters still aren’t showing up in polls, leaving room for a potential surprise on Election Day.
2. Turnout Dynamics: Trump’s base has always been more motivated, and that enthusiasm could once again make the difference in battleground states.
3, Polling Methodology: Despite efforts to correct past mistakes, the complexity of today’s electorate continues to challenge the accuracy of polling methods.
Maybe Trump voters are less 'shy' than ever, so that phenomenon won't be as strong this cycle. Maybe Democrats' summer high of zeal and enthusiasm and "joy" will match or edge Republicans' motivation. Maybe pollsters have cleaned up what has made them miss, sometimes badly, in recent years. Or maybe not, on some or all of the above. Here are some swing state numbers showing Trump very narrowly trailing, tied, or just ahead in the decisive battlegrounds:
📊 New Swing States polling by @trafalgar_group & @InsiderPolling
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 1, 2024
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟪 Other: 3%
—
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 47% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 46%
🟪 Other: 3%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 47% (=)
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟪 Other: 4%
—
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 48% (+1)
🟦… pic.twitter.com/r27HdUlRzm
Swing States poll by @RedfieldWilton
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2024
New Mexico - 🔵 Harris +7
Minnesota - 🔵 Harris +9
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris +4
Michigan - 🔵 Harris +3
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris +1
Nevada - 🟡 Tied
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +1
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +2
Florida - 🔴 Trump +5… pic.twitter.com/oqHYlxpOO8
📊 MICHIGAN poll by EPIC-MRA
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2024
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 46%
—
Senate
🟦 Slotkin: 46%
🟥 Rogers: 42%
#92 (2.0/3.0) | 8/23-26 | 600 LV | ±4%https://t.co/vX9m5r6cXS pic.twitter.com/sIUPbfmmzR
In sum, this is a very, very close election, according to the polls -- which may or may not be once again understating Trump's margins. And for what it's worth, I'll leave you with Nate Silver's model/algorithm -- which had Trump beating Biden, then shifted to Harris leading Trump -- see-sawing back to a Trump advantage (which is interesting because it's not like Trump has enjoyed a flurry of really positive new polling):
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 1, 2024
August 14
🟦 Harris: 56.7%
🟥 Trump: 42.7%
.
August 31
🟥 Trump: 55.1%
🟦 Harris: 44.6%
——
Swing States: chance of winning
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 55-45%
Nevada - 🔴 Trump 55-45%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 65-35%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump… pic.twitter.com/KTFgMMwchg
