Just yesterday, RealClearPolitics founder Tom Bevan tweeted about the state of the race: "120 days from Election Day, here's where things stand:Trump is up 3.3% in the RCP National 2-Way Average...Trump is up 4.9% in the RCP National 5-Way Average...In the Top 7 Battlegrounds (AZ, NV, GA, NC, PA, MI, WI), Trump's average lead is 3.8%...Trump's lead over Biden in the RCP Net Favorability Average is 6.1%...Biden's approval rating the RCP Average is 38.6%, while his disapproval is 57.9%...Lastly, Republicans lead in the RCP Generic Congressional Ballot Average by 1.5%." Republican over-confidence and under-performance is a real worry, but it's still very hard to argue that Donald Trump is anything other than a clear favorite to win in November, as of this moment. He's never polled better in his entire political career. He can still lose this thing, but the Biden campaign would trade polling places with him in a heartbeat.
New York Times polling guru Nate Cohn -- who recently delivered Democrats a harrowing post-debate national survey showing Trump ahead by six percentage points -- spent some time last evening highlighting this poll from a different outfit, calling it "perhaps the most important poll you've never heard of:"
📊 Pew Research Poll: % of U.S. adults who identify politically as... (with indie leaners)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 8, 2024
2020
🟦 Democrats: 51%
🟥 Republicans: 46%
2024
🟥 Republicans: 47%
🟦 Democrats: 46%
#40 (2.5/3.0) | N=5,626 | Feb 1 - June 10https://t.co/mxOdZJ6FXe pic.twitter.com/1DlmtbxFEg
So what? It's one data point showing partisan identification has supposedly swung six points rightward since the last presidential election. Why is that so significant? Cohn explained that the "Pew NPORS study, a large mail survey with financial incentives and a 30% response rate. It's important enough that I had to open it when the email arrived." His exposition unfolded from there. Yes, this is a big deal:
The headline: NPORS found leaned party identification at R+1. That's the first time NPORS gives the GOP a party ID edge. Last year, it was D+2.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) July 8, 2024
That's significant in its own right, given the quality of the survey. But it will effect other polls -- like that Ipsos poll that…
This is such a high-quality poll that it serves as a "weighting" benchmark for other major polls we've all heard of, including CNN's -- which already has Trump up six, just like the Times and Wall Street Journal polls do. In short, some of these other polls may soon look even less favorable for Biden because they'll be re-weighted to reflect a redder electorate, including young voters. There's a reason why this right-leaning polling expert, who has written about the GOP's struggles with younger voters, is calling this a 'holy moly' finding:
Holy MOLY https://t.co/B8AzzkTGl0
— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) July 8, 2024
It seems as though factors like the Hamas encampments and other insane "progressive" excesses, plus painful inflation, is just too much, even for many members of our youngest voting cohort. And then there's this:
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Important note/observation by @chriswithans: this poll is pre-debate. The numbers are most likely slightly worse (at a minimum) for Dems post-debate: https://t.co/YKsGipL44j
— Brittany (@bccover) July 8, 2024
Yes, in an era of rough polls for Democrats, this one may be the roughest -- even though it doesn't measure a Trump-Biden head-to-head. I'll leave you with this one, which does:
USA Today/Suffolk: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump did as president between 2017-2020?
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 8, 2024
🟢 Approve: 51%
🔴 Disapprove: 47%
—
• White: 56-44
• Black: 27-71
• Hispanic: 50-50
---
• Age 18-29: 56-43
• Age 35-49: 44-56
• Age 50-64: 57-40
• Age 65+: 49-49… https://t.co/dpEklS8Pzj pic.twitter.com/cEi6PHvwfn
Biden's current job approval rating in the same poll? 41/57.
