The latest Fox News national survey shows former President Donald Trump pushing out to his largest general election lead in the history of the polling series -- in any of the three cycles in which Trump has run. His advantage over incumbent President Joe Biden sits at five percentage points in this data set, both in the head-to-head matchup (Trump hits 50 percent on this question) and the 'crowded field' scenario. For what it's worth, Trump's lead in a hypothetical battle against Vice President Kamala Harris is slightly larger, at six percentage points.
Here are the top line outcomes from Fox's fresh numbers:
🇺🇲 2024 National GE: Fox News Poll
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 27, 2024
🟥 Trump 50% [+1]
🟦 Biden 45% [-2]
---
🟥 Trump 43% [+2]
🟦 Biden 38% [=]
🟨 RFK Jr 12% [-1]
🟨 West 2% [-1]
🟩 Stein 2% [=]
[+/- vs February]
—
🟥 Trump 51% (+6)
🟦 Harris 45%
538: #15 (2.8/3.0) | 3/15-18 | 1,094 RVhttps://t.co/qypWKxumy2 pic.twitter.com/OeIAqOxcj7
🇺🇲 2024 GE - Fox News: #15 (2.8/3.0)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 27, 2024
🟥 Trump 50% (+5)
🟦 Biden 45%
Independents
🟥 Trump 51% (+14)
🟦 Biden 37%
This is the largest lead for Trump in any Fox News poll ever
Last six Fox polls of 2020:
Biden +14
Biden +12
Biden +10
Biden +10
Biden +11
Biden +7 (last poll) https://t.co/2xfKCQIqg0 pic.twitter.com/FxfF8RlRrD
As the above tweet notes -- 'below the fold' -- Fox's pollster projected an eight-point Biden popular vote victory in 2020. The actual margin ended up being 4.5 points. Trump is now up by five, boosted by a double-digit advantage among independents. By 30 points, voters tell Fox's pollster that they're worse off financially than they were four years ago, compared to better off. The 'worse off' contingent includes majorities of white, black and hispanic voters. Biden is personally less popular on favorability (-21) than Trump is (-9) right now, too. A pair of other nationwide polls also show Trump in the lead over Biden, including the Daily Mail (Trump +4) and Forbes (Trump +3). A Quinnipiac survey, however, shows Biden leading Trump by three points nationally, despite dreadful job approval ratings for the sitting president:
Recommended
Quinnipiac: President Biden Job Approval
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 27, 2024
Approve 37% [-3]
Disapprove 59% [+2]
—
Men: 27-70
Women: 47-50
White: 38-59
Black: 56-42
Hispanic: 32-64
18-34 y/o: 27-67
65+ y/o: 49-49
White college: 52-45
White no college: 28-68
[+/- vs February]
—
#19 (2.8/3.0) | 1,407 RV | 3/21-25 pic.twitter.com/nxH4NLUJmE
If Biden is going to win re-election, he will likely need many voters to choose him over Trump despite their deep dissatisfaction with his job performance. How does Fox have Trump up five, while the Q-poll has Biden up three? The former poll has independents breaking decisively for Trump, with women almost evenly split; the latter poll has Biden ahead with independents and crushing Trump among women. That would go a long way in explaining the resulting eight-point gap. Finally on the 2024 election front, I'll leave you with this answer from my wide-ranging interview with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, whom I asked about a hypothetical running mate invitation from Trump:
BREAKING: We had the honor of just having fmr Secretary of State @mikepompeo on the show, and he said if offered the VP position, he would, "Be inclined to go and try and be a part of the team."
— The Guy Benson Show (@GuyBensonShow) March 28, 2024
Listen below and click the link for the full interview!
🎧: https://t.co/iDhZdsVprk pic.twitter.com/Rvt17mNSWL
As I also noted, "I know a lot of the conventional wisdom about Trump’s VP pick suggests that it’ll be a woman and/or person of color. But there’s a pretty strong case for Pompeo, [in my opinion]: He’s a former Secretary of State, CIA Chief, and Congressman. He’s a veteran and a West Point grad. He’s a serious, non-volatile figure with deep experience…who’s undeniably be ready to be president, if needed. He’s seemingly maintained a good relationship with Trump. He’s relatively young at 60. This wouldn’t be a sizzle pick, but it might be a very solid one." Pompeo would bring credibility, experience, preparedness and reassuring stability to the ticket. He merits serious consideration.
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