Could Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in 2024, having lost to him once already? Many Trump supporters either believe the former president was robbed in 2020 (Trump's legal team totally failed to prove such claims in court, and often didn't even try when presented with the opportunity), or that next time would be different. Conservative skeptics note that the Republican Party has lost or underperformed in every election since 2016 -- including an expected walloping in 2018, the 2020 loss, and an unexpectedly weak showing in 2022, despite Biden's unpopularity an widespread public discontent. Voter data demonstrated the 'Trump effect' on GOP candidates aligned with the former president, who performed quantifiably and significantly worse than other Republicans in the midterms.
Democrats and progressives have been tipping their hand, implicitly and explicitly, that they'd like to face Trump again next fall, believing that the factors that led to his upset victory over Hillary Clinton no longer exist. They believe he's in a weaker position now than he was in advance of his loss to Biden more than two years ago. It's worth noting that their cynical, risky 2022 meddling in Republican primaries -- in which they attempted to manipulate conservative voters into nominating beatable general election candidates -- resulted in a 100 percent Democratic victory rate in contests featuring the party's preferred GOP opponent. A conservative organization's political arm is now running digital ads making the case that Trump cannot win the 2024 general election, and by extension, urging Republican voters not to give Democrats exactly what they're asking for:
The political network financed largely by billionaire Charles Koch is launching a wave of digital ads targeting former President Donald Trump. The ads argue that if Trump becomes the Republican nominee next year, it will lead to President Joe Biden winning reelection. Americans for Prosperity Action, a super PAC that received millions of dollars during the 2022 election cycle from the Charles Koch-chaired Koch Industries and the Koch-backed Stand Together Chamber of Commerce...One of the spots, titled “Only Way,” has a voiceover saying, “The only way Biden wins is if we nominate Trump again.” Another ad, called “No Thanks,” says, “Trump can’t win” and “we need new leadership.” A third clip, named “Biden’s Secret Weapon,” says: “What’s Biden’s secret weapon? Donald Trump as the GOP nominee. Biden wins the White House and gets the House and Senate, too.”
All of the Koch digital ads cite public polling that say how key voters don’t want Trump to be president again. Many of those same polls also show that many voters don’t want Biden to run for a second term, either...These ads, according to Americans for Prosperity Action spokesman Bill Riggs, are targeting voters in the key early primary and caucus states Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada. Riggs noted that the new ad buys come after Americans for Prosperity CEO Emily Seidel said in a February memo to staff and activists that it would support a GOP candidate for president other than Trump.
Here are the spots voters in those four states are seeing online:
I'll note that I'm proudly affiliated with Americans For Prosperity, as a member of an advisory board, but I had nothing whatsoever to do with the development of these ads. That said, I can't argue with the line of argument presented, highlighting the Left's obvious preference to face Trump again and the clear polling showing how unpalatable Trump is as a candidate to key voting blocs that swing elections, especially in must-win states like Georgia. The fact is, both of these men are strikingly unpopular:
ABC/IPSOS POLL: Do you have a Favorable or Unfavorable opinion of ...?
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 11, 2023
Trump
Favorable: 31%
Unfavorable: 56%
Net: -25%
Biden
Favorable: 31%
Unfavorable: 52%
Net: -21%
ABC/Ipsos | n=910 | June 9-10https://t.co/aXXWCMwGdw pic.twitter.com/DZwmpKUBMj
The American people are doing everything short of standing on the roof and screaming for two new options in 2024. Trump and Biden *each* at 31% fav in this @abc poll today. https://t.co/3hDXKnbAwF pic.twitter.com/oa2bDew2ZS
— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) June 11, 2023
Democrats may be stuck with their incumbent, unless they decide to toss him overboard at some point, but Republicans have an open field. Trump is the strong frontrunner right now, and his position may well improve among the party faithful as a result of the recent federal indictment against him. Primary polling shows that a plurality or majority of GOP voters don't agree with the warning that Trump can't win a general election -- various losses by or tied to Trump notwithstanding. What, if anything, could shift that prevailing view? That's a riddle that other Republican candidates, and center-right voters who don't want to tie the party's fortunes to the former president again, are trying to crack. I'll leave you with some polling evidence that Trump does appear to be particularly weak against an unpopular Biden in an exceptionally important state (and also running worse against the incumbent than Ron DeSantis in another) -- as well as a trajectory away from Trump in one survey series:
2024 Georgia GE:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 9, 2023
Donald Trump 42% (+1)
Joe Biden 41%
Generic Republican 48% (+10)
Joe Biden 38%
.@Cygnal / Hardworking Americans PAC (R), 600 LV, 6/5-7https://t.co/PNXpFEqpei
2024 Republican Primary Polling Trends by Reuters/Ipsos (full field)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 12, 2023
April 6
• Trump — 58% (+37)
• DeSantis — 21%
May 15
• Trump — 49% (+30)
• DeSantis — 19%
June 9:
• Trump — 43% (+21)
• DeSantis — 22%
✅ Net 16-point swing towards DeSantis https://t.co/Ezg0aXcokh pic.twitter.com/8TwOU8C6RO
Key questions: Will that downward movement be reflected in other polling (we've seen a similar effect in some numbers out of Iowa and elsewhere)? Will the federal indictment change things at all, in either direction? And even if growing numbers of GOP-aligned voters start to harbor doubts about the wisdom of nominating Trump again, will they consolidate around an alternative?
