Much has already been said and written about former President Trump's angry ravings against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis late last week. Indeed, I've said quite a bit myself, including on Fox's Special Report, minutes after the "Truth" post went live. My primary reaction was that the former president was trying to bully DeSantis out of a potential 2024 White House run, or at least trying to draw him into an ugly brawl -- just days after the midterm elections, with votes still being counted, and a key Senate runoff still pending. Trump and his allies often insist that he never picks fights, unprovoked. He's a 'counter-puncher,' they claim. But not, rather conspicuously, in this case:
From tonight’s panel, on Trump’s DeSantis screed pic.twitter.com/XmoaVJy7qt
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 11, 2022
The 'why' is blatantly obvious: Trump correctly views DeSantis as a political threat, so he's trying to take him out early. Trump's underwhelming 'DeSanctimonious' nickname, rolled out pre-midterms, was offered in the context of boasting about an unscientific conference straw poll showing the 45th president crushing all comers in a future GOP primary. But the landscape may be shifting, and Trumpworld knows it:
GOP Presidential Polling:
— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) November 12, 2022
DeSantis: 42% (+6)
Trump: 35% (-10)
YouGov / Nov 11, 2022 / n=400
(% change with Oct 17)https://t.co/EKTAcGtZFx
That's a new national survey of Republican voters. We've seen surveys putting DeSantis ahead of Trump head-to-head in Florida, a delegate-rich early primary state. Here's another number out of Georgia, where GOP voters strongly rejected Trump's attempted influence in gubernatorial and Secretary of State primaries this past cycle, resulting in strong general election wins for the GOP:
A survey of 656 likely Republican voters also released in July by Blueprint Polling shows DeSantis the choice of 51% when voters who lean one way or another are considered, with a 12-point lead over Trump at 39%. But DeSantis’ strength against Trump isn’t limited to Florida. Though a small sample size (213 voters), a Georgia poll pitting Trump and DeSantis shows the Florida Governor ahead 52% to 36%. Echelon Insights conducted that poll between Oct. 31 and Nov. 2. This comports with other Georgia polling this cycle showing DeSantis getting the duke in the Peach State. The poll trend in Florida, Georgia and beyond shows an increasingly competitive dynamic
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This is also a much less scientific, but still quite interesting, anecdotal data point:
👀
— Jonathan Allen (@jonallendc) November 11, 2022
American Firearms Association — which makes NRA look a knitting club — says its members have flipped from Trump to DeSantis. It doesn’t really matter whether or how a poll of members was conducted. The fact that they’re releasing this is a signal to the hard right and Trump. pic.twitter.com/dUemk1QoLm
Those are very conservative folks apparently looking to turn the page. I realize that some Trump loyalists will dismiss any or all of my thoughts as the embittered, biased commentary of a 'Trump hater.' I addressed that point at some length, then commented on Trump's long screed (including recycled and weak Democratic attacks), in an extended radio monologue on Friday. If you have an open mind, feel free to listen and consider my points (first three segments of the show below):
I'm under no illusions that it will be a simple trick to defeat Trump in a 2024 primary. He commands a devoted following that is a force to be reckoned with, especially if a large group of Republican candidates (almost all of whom have zero chance of actually winning) crowd into the field and slice up the proverbial pie. Under those circumstances, Trump will have the biggest slice, and he'll be almost impossible to beat. For that reason, I think it's a strategic error for him to (reportedly) be announcing so incredibly early, thus scaring off any number of possible entrants into the race, due simply to his presence in it. It would benefit him to wait, let the list of declared candidates swell, then announce relatively late with a huge splash -- which he can afford to do, thanks to his huge pot of money and universal name recognition. But apparently, his desire for immediate attention and total fealty is driving him to get in extremely early. He's apparently convinced Republican voters won't tire of a two-year slog, replete with heavy baggage, endless drama and exhausting nonsense like this:
His wife, I call her Coco Chao …
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 12, 2022
… Sounds Chinese, doesn’t it? pic.twitter.com/K89Wx0F07q
Maybe -- just maybe -- a very large number of GOP voters will (a) worry that the party hugely underperformed in the midterms (though many of those dreaded "normal" Republicans won handily), then (b) recall that Trump needed an inside straight to barely beat perhaps the worst and most corrupt major party nominee in modern American political history in 2016, before losing an eminently winnable race to a very weak opponent in 2020, and decide that perhaps it's time to turn the page. Most of them won't be craving an old-school establishment type, but will be seeking someone who has credibility with the base and can continue and advance Trump policies, but also expand the party's appeal, all while being an effective fighter. If that's a common desire, it's no wonder Team Trump is anxiously eyeing last week's results in Florida and detecting a political problem they may have.
No one is arguing that Ron DeSantis should enjoy any sort of coronation; he'd need to prove himself as a presidential candidate if he decides to run. Just because he's been through the gauntlet and emerged stronger than ever in his state doesn't automatically translate onto the national stage, as many Scott Walker 2016 backers learned the hard way. But he's got one hell of a story to tell, and his opponents on the right and left know it. Leftists in the Democratic Party and media have been trying to take him out for the last few years. It's remarkable watching some of the "principled" "anti-Trump" "conservative" grifters, who tell us Trump poses an unique threat to the republic, starting to openly root for Trump over DeSantis, cheering on the former's name-calling and trolling. Democrats are effectively doing the same:
BLEEP BLOOP GLASS JAW pic.twitter.com/VtywRQSOy5
— Noam Blum (@neontaster) November 11, 2022
McAuliffe endorses Trump for GOP 2024 nomination https://t.co/YT8Z6akzo4
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 12, 2022
It's not subtle. They fear DeSantis politically for the same reasons Trump does. For his part, DeSantis has been doing precisely the right thing -- which is to say: Nothing. He's diligently focused on his job as governor, including more storm relief, and is shrewdly remaining mum on Trump's thirsty barbs. DeSantis has no incentive to dive into the mud, and he's got other work to do in the meantime. He should let Trump work himself into a deranged lather, and offer it no oxygen. Brian Kemp transcended Trump's targeting in Georgia by refusing to take the bait, over and over again. That's an object lesson. If DeSantis ultimately decides to take Trump on, he'll need to engage at some point. But that point needs to be at a time and in a manner of his choosing, not Trump's. And he shouldn't be in any rush. I'll leave you with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin's brush-off of Trump's furious yelling about him:
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin responds to Trump.
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) November 11, 2022
👇👇👇 pic.twitter.com/3b1HlZJmtx
If anything, that's too much of a response. "I've got other priorities right now, and I won't be responding to this sort of thing, thank you," might be even better. The former president and his team have been railing about Virginia Republicans in unhinged ways for the last few days, including bizarre threats and divorced-from-reality historical revisionism. Maybe Republican voters are hungry for even more years of this sort of thing. But maybe they aren't. Important choices lie ahead, and President Trump is evidently prepared to give them a very, very long time to think about it, starting tomorrow.
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