As Spencer highlighted over the weekend, the latest national survey from NPR, PBS and Marist points to a brutal midterm election cycle for the ruling party. The data points are piling up. In this poll, Republicans lead on the generic ballot – a metric that historically favors Democrats, even in fairly red-tinted years – by three percentage points. If accurate, a three-point GOP "popular vote" victory would almost certainly sweep the party into power in both congressional chambers. Some of the poll's internal numbers are especially intriguing:
New NPR/Marist poll is remarkable
— Christy Lewis (@Cavalewis) April 29, 2022
Republicans lead Democrats on generic Congressional ballot among these groups:
?? Parents with children under 18: 60% choose GOP; 39% Democrats
?? Latino voters: 52% GOP; 39% Dems pic.twitter.com/9QxnZsZ54D
Let's face it: If Republicans even come close to winning Hispanics, it'll be a very strong cycle for them. If they somehow win Latino voters outright, let alone by double-digits, it'll be a blowout – and Democrats' dreams of a permanent, demographic-driven majority will be reduced to smoldering rubble. The +13 number among Hispanics seems a little too good to be true, but we shall see. The GOP's advantage among parents of school-aged children is massive, and it reflects a phenomenon that helped Virginia Republicans win sweeping victories last November. The backlash is real, and progressives telling parents that they're weird conspiracy theorists, bigots, or even potential terrorists for simply noticing reality around them does not appear to be a successful strategy:
“Where did those kids go?” Public school systems are starting to feel the pinch from enrollment losses tied to the pandemic. School funding, partially driven by headcounts, is down sharply because families are opting for homeschooling and private schools. https://t.co/oghDyR5Sod
— The Associated Press (@AP) April 30, 2022
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"Districts that were most likely to be remote last year lost an average of 3.2 percent of their students in 2020-2021, then continued losses this school year for a two-year enrollment drop of 4.4 percent."https://t.co/8HuNcE5gFM
— NYC Angry Mom (@angrybklynmom) April 27, 2022
*You* didn’t even care if we had public education for more than a year! Literally no one has ever done more damage to public education and trust in educators than those who convinced schools to stay closed and abandon education for a year. https://t.co/rH4hvFeHS5
— Mary Katharine Ham (@mkhammer) April 25, 2022
A few more notable nuggets from the NPR/PBS/Marist data set: (1) Independents favor Republicans by seven points. (2) Women side with Democrats by ten points, but men go for the GOP by 15 points. (3) The youngest voters – Millennials and Gen Z – split evenly between the two parties (R+1), which would be a complete disaster for Democrats if borne out in real electoral results. I'm skeptical of this one, but I'm also skeptical that Republicans are only up nine points with white voters, and that the oldest voters prefer Democrats by double digits (both also findings in this poll). Here's another generic ballot survey published in the past few days:
New Susquehanna/@FDRLST survey has a 10-point GOP advantage on generic ballot (49-39), but interestingly it’s not just an overall GOP-biased survey; they have Biden up on Trump by 2% in a hypothetical rematch. Midterms just shaping up terribly for Demshttps://t.co/BxTUaoI751
— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) April 29, 2022
As Dobson points out, this same poll shows narrowly Biden leading Trump in a potential rematch (ahem), so it's not a crazy R-slanted outlier. It's just ugly out there for Democrats right now. Will things remain this ugly by the time the fall rolls around?
"If you’re in a district that Biden carried by less than 15 or 20 points, you’re in great danger as a Democrat"@newtgingrich predicts GOP could pick up historic 70 House seats https://t.co/A9YYrRSAs2
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) May 1, 2022
COOK POLITICAL REPORT: "No Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure." pic.twitter.com/Ht415cbXXP
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) April 24, 2022
Democrats are hoping that the new Washington Post/ABC survey, which has Biden "only" ten points underwater, and the generic ballot tied, is more predictive than a lot of the other doomsday-looking stuff out there. I'll leave you with this – I somehow doubt this has Republicans trembling in their boots:
A frustrated President Biden will go on the attack against Republicans in the midterms — and into 2024 https://t.co/njjDk3VD7n
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) April 29, 2022
The journalists have let Biden down https://t.co/dYSRkaKVGO pic.twitter.com/Uf2Ejifdmx
— Chuck Ross (@ChuckRossDC) April 29, 2022
Imagine how desperate things must be in Democratland when they're reduced to whining that their Democratic allies in the news media aren't sufficiently face-first in the tank against the opposition. Dark days. And I'd guess that quite a few Republicans would pay good money to fly Biden into their states and districts to campaign against them. A blathering, "frustrated" man with an approval rating in the 30s in many swing areas isn't exactly the face of political intimidation.
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