One of the most important Senate races in the country this cycle will take place in Nevada – a state that has trended blue in recent decades, but appears to be on the verge of shifting back in the other direction.
Earlier this year, Silver State political journalist Jon Ralston noted that Republicans had been making substantial gains to close a registration gap with Democrats and that independents are leaning red these days:
Reg gap between Ds and Rs hasn't been this close in NV since a decade and a half ago, close to when GOP actually had a registration edge here. (Yes, NV once was a red state.)
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 5, 2022
Both majors have lost market share to non-majors, and Rs now below 30%.
Indies rule, favor GOP for now.
Two weeks ago, he pointed out that the pro-GOP registration and party-switching trends have continued. One Democratic congresswoman from Nevada, angry with her own party's bungling, thinks it's possible for Republicans to sweep all of the state's House districts this fall. Between President Biden's deep unpopularity in Nevada, and the state Democratic Party being seized by Socialists in a hostile takeover, Republicans agree that there's a genuine opportunity for major gains up and down the ballot. Look no further than this latest statewide survey released yesterday:
Pretty striking result in Suffolk poll of Nevada likely voters. 47% vote to change direction vs 27% support Biden's direction.
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) April 12, 2022
Plus tight Gov & Sen races
Story:https://t.co/wriMHcg7Fb
Toplines: https://t.co/Xl7Mlu3upf pic.twitter.com/uEqen1yDj0
Only 35% of those polled approved of President Joe Biden’s job performance — 6 percentage points below the first-term Democrat’s already dismal nationwide approval rating...All of which helps explain why Cortez Masto and Sisolak are now polling behind candidates once considered long-shots to take their jobs. Cortez Masto lost both of the survey’s head-to-head challenges against Republican favorites Adam Laxalt and Sam Brown, despite heavily outspending them on the campaign trail. Brown, a U.S. Army veteran and newcomer on the Nevada campaign scene, topped Cortez Masto by less than 1 percentage point. Laxalt, Nevada’s former attorney general, was favored by a roughly 3 percent margin...“Any time an incumbent polls under 50%, he or she is deemed vulnerable because they are established brands,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Moreover, when incumbents poll at or below 40% it is much worse, because it is very difficult to convince undecideds to vote for you when they remain undecided despite telling us that they are very interested in voting in this election.”
Cortez Masto is polling...at or below 40 percent in these hypothetical match-ups, as the heavily-spending incumbent:
Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network Nevada poll
— David Paleologos (@davidpaleologos) April 12, 2022
Race for U.S. Senate
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 40%
Adam Laxalt (R) 43%
None of these candidates 3%
Undecided 14%
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 39%
Sam Brown (R) 40%
None of these candidates 5%
Undecided 17%
One liberal analyst has been sounding the alarm about Democrats' "Nevada problem," citing swings among working class and Hispanic voters. Josh Kraushaar at National Journal thinks the state could become the "political epicenter" of a potential GOP wave election. He writes that Cortez Masto has recently moved to distance herself from the Biden administration on the border crisis, as have a number of vulnerable Democratic senators. Staring down the barrel of an even worse immigration disaster, Georgia's Raphael Warnock has recently stated that it's not the right time to end "Title 42" expulsions, an announced Biden policy that's expected to explode the already-acute problem. Cortez Masto is in the same boat. But both of them joined every one of their Democratic colleagues to kill a GOP effort to maintain and protect Title 42 removals back in August of last year. The vote was exactly party line. Now, worried about their electoral fortunes, some of these same Democrats are incoherently flip-flopping on the issue, for transparently political reasons. This one may take the cake, though:
New messaging just dropped for vulnerable Democrats.
— Natalie Allison (@natalie_allison) April 11, 2022
Sen. Maggie Hassan (NH) tells local news after visiting TX and AZ that Biden "really needs to step up here, develop a plan and get more resources to the southern border," including "physical barriers." https://t.co/LqWpAWAzGn
Build that big, beautiful wall, says Hassan, who repeatedly opposed and voted down wall funding – but who has all of a sudden visited the border and has been blathering about security. Like Cortez Masto and Warnock, Hassan is effectively a generic Democrat who does whatever Chuck Schumer asks...until some disingenuous press releases and photo-ops are needed to serve as a political lifeline. It's not subtle.
