Last week, we asked whether Terry McAuliffe was panicking in the Virginia gubernatorial race. This week, Axios takes inventory of McAuliffe's actions and detects more than a faint whiff of desperation. Recall that McAuliffe recently cut short a local TV interview, scolding the journalist for not asking the "right" sort of questions. Same energy here. Behold, "an air of tension, bordering on panic":
?? Axios his the McAuliffe panic button
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) October 25, 2021
Amazing that the only thing he wants to talk about is Trump .. but when he’s asked about trying to make the race about Trump he gets irritated and flustered. https://t.co/MUtAQUKNQA pic.twitter.com/msbuj6Vh1n
Who requests an interview, then abruptly limits it to five minutes? Terry McAuliffe, apparently. Looking at polling is one thing, but the behavior of the candidates can sometimes betray the true state of play. McAuliffe, who wakes up every morning and sees his own internal polling, is not campaigning like a confident man. That doesn't mean that he's losing, or thinks he's on the brink of a loss. But it does mean that he doesn't believe he has this race in the bag, even in a state that went blue by ten full points one year ago. He's lying a lot and has seemed agitated, whereas Glenn Youngkin comes across as calm and upbeat. There's almost no question who has the momentum in the final week of this contest. What does remain to be seen is whether Youngkin's momentum will be enough for him to get over the top and actually pull off the upset. Youngkin needs big GOP turnout, plus underwhelming Democratic base turnout, plus independents and undecideds breaking decisively for him. Is that doable? Yes. Polling suggests that those things are happening. But is it sufficient? Gulp:
“Independent voters and parents of K-12 students are stampeding to support Republicans Glenn Youngkin, Winsome Sears, Jason Miyares and GOP state house candidates,” remarked pollster Brent Buchanan, CEO of Cygnal, a national polling firm ranked as most accurate.
— Corey A. DeAngelis (@DeAngelisCorey) October 25, 2021
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Parents and indies are flocking to Youngkin, which are developments he absolutely needs to happen to have a viable shot. But even with that headway, he's making, the top line ballot is still tied. Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics agrees that it's tight, but still thinks McAuliffe is in a better position to win:
This last thing I agree on. Often you can tell what's going on better by what the candidates are doing more than anything else. And McAuliffe isn't acting like this is a 5-7 point race right now. I still don't think he loses, but this is close. https://t.co/OYAAneHRaB
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) October 25, 2021
Virginia is a purple-trending-blue state and he's the Democrat on the ballot. Those fundamentals clearly favor McAuliffe. The rest of the fundamentals – national environment, presidential approval, Virginia electoral history, trajectory, enthusiasm – favor Youngkin. Those dynamics will collide one week from today and we'll see which set prevails. I'll leave you with yet another look at the massive issue of schools, which Democrats and media types have spent a lot of time convincing themselves is phony and "trumped up," as Barack Obama called it over the weekend. But it's moving the needle on the ground and in people's lives:
This is why education isn’t just a manufactured cable news issue— when you’re seeing this level of dissatisfaction in the state’s bluest population center.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 25, 2021
And that's why McAuliffe has been playing frantic defense – and, naturally, lying in the process:
This lie is beneath even you, Terry.
— Glenn Youngkin (@GlennYoungkin) October 25, 2021
Washington Post FactChecker 9/30/21:
McAuliffe "mischaracterized the bills he vetoed. Neither bill would have allowed parents to 'veto books' or 'take them off the shelves,' according to the bills and the veto statements issued by McAuliffe" https://t.co/VYEk7yXgXh pic.twitter.com/QjYfgunpBx
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