I've been very open about my own decision to get vaccinated, while highlighting excellent news about the vaccines' efficacy. They work remarkably well and have worked wonders, unlike the Chinese Communist Party's less sophisticated and less effective versions. Two points, before proceeding further. We know that some "breakthrough cases" do occur among vaccinated people, hence news accounts about recent positive tests from comedian Bill Maher, several New York Yankees, and a pair of passengers on an all-vaxxed cruise ship. The incredibly reassuring news about these examples is that Maher "never was sick, I felt nothing," which was also the case for all but two of the Yankees cases (the exceptions were very mild cases). As for the cruise duo, whose story set off a ripple of panic, the facts on that story are also looking encouraging:
All crew and adult passengers on board the Celebrity Millennium had to show proof that they were fully vaccinated as well as provide a negative COVID-19 test prior to or at the time of boarding. The passengers found out they were positive while undergoing testing before disembarking the ship in St. Maarten. All of their close contacts tested negative, according to Celebrity. "The individuals are asymptomatic and currently in isolation and being monitored by our medical team," the cruise line said in a statement to ABC News.
The two people who tested positive despite being vaccinated had no COVID symptoms – in other words, they felt fine. And their fellow passengers with whom they'd had close contact again tested negative. We know that some small number of fully vaccinated people will contract COVID anyway. The difference is that these people are extremely likely to avoid serious cases and appear much less likely to spread the virus to others. So rather than being a worrisome harbinger, the details of this cruise ship incident amount to very good news thus far. It stands to reason that "breakthrough" cases are probably quite a bit more common than have been officially reported because asymptomatic vaccinated people aren't getting tested very often, per CDC guidance and common sense. But the important goal is not to find zero trace of COVID in nasal swabs. The goal is for people not to get sick and spread illness, and the vaccines continue to get the job done with extraordinary levels of success.
As for the safety of the vaccines, the news has been overwhelmingly good on that front, too. I was highly critical of the freakout over a tiny handful of potential blood clot side effects tied to the Johnson & Johnson shot, a temporary pause of which needlessly cratered public confidence in that specific vaccine. People are being a bit more circumspect about the microscopic number of alleged side effect cases involving heart inflammation among some younger people who receive the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna). The facts on this possible scare are also confidence-building:
Overall, 226 cases of myocarditis or pericarditis after vaccination in people younger than age 30 have been confirmed, Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, deputy director of the CDC's Immunization Safety Office, said during a presentation to a Food and Drug Administration advisory group. Further investigation is needed, however, to confirm whether the vaccination was the cause of the heart problem...The vast majority of the cases were sent home following a visit to a hospital as of the end of May. It's unclear how many patients were admitted to the hospital, or, for example, were discharged following a visit to the emergency room. Fifteen patients remain hospitalized, with three in intensive care units. Two of the patients in the ICU had other health problems. The CDC had information on the recovery of patients in 220 cases; in more than 80 percent of these cases, patients got better on their own.
The CDC is looking into this further, which is appropriate, but just look at the numbers. Tens of millions of young people have gotten mRNA vaccine shots, and the myocarditis cases number just over 200 (and doctors aren't even sure if the vaccines were causal). And the "vast majority" were not serious, with more than 80 percent of this already-fractional number recovering naturally. Any negative reaction to a vaccine is unfortunate, no matter how rare, but taking a broader view of the risk and reward, this is an extremely positive story. We know that COVID itself presents lots of nasty side effects for substantial percentages of people who survive the virus, including long-term serious damage and significantly heightened stroke risk, in addition to many cases involving long-lasting symptoms. That's the far deeper concern, in my opinion. It's wonderful that America's COVID trajectories remain outstanding at the moment, and roughly two-thirds of adults are at least partially vaccinated. Some experts, including non-hysterical ones, are getting nervous about the coming months – especially in fall and winter – as they anxiously eye the Indian or "Delta" variant and the distinct possibility of a "third wave."
That strain of COVID has been brutal in places where it becomes dominant, ravaging India and even spiking cases in heavily vaccinated Britain (especially among the unvaccinated). What's encouraging is that our vaccines are still very effective against this variant, and the most vulnerable populations in our country are overwhelmingly vaxxed. Nevertheless, given its heightened transmissibility (and severity, it seems), the Indian/Delta variant could sweep through unvaccinated pockets of the country, particularly in "red" areas, and do some real damage once seasonal conditions are less favorable and the strain becomes more prevalent in America (which could happen quite soon). In that sense, we're in a race against the clock to get more people vaccinated before one or both of those factors come into play. This is an interesting way of thinking about the vaccination decision for those who are still undecided or hesitant:
Mike Fesi, a Republican state senator in Louisiana, didn’t trust coronavirus vaccines. So earlier this year, when his colleagues seized their chance to get inoculated against the virus, Fesi refused. He figured he didn’t need the vaccines, and he claimed, without evidence, that they had killed a friend of his family. But then Fesi got a nasty surprise: A month ago, he was abruptly vaccinated, and the vaccine made him sick. That’s because the vaccine he got wasn’t Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson. It was COVID-19...All of us are going to get vaccinated one way or the other. Sooner or later—and probably sooner, since the supercharged delta variant already accounts for 10 percent of U.S. infections, and that share is doubling every two weeks—people who don’t take one of the approved vaccines will get the virus. They might think of that as an alternative to vaccination, but it’s not. The virus will do the same thing the vaccines do: It will provoke their immune systems to develop antibodies. The difference is that the virus, unlike the vaccines, will attack their bodies and quite possibly kill them...
Would you rather come in, at a time of your choosing, to get a vaccine that’s been carefully tested for safety? Or would you rather be ambushed with a 'vaccine' that has killed millions of people? The approved vaccines aren’t completely risk-free, but they’re pretty close to it. The worst known side effect, a blood-clotting syndrome, occurred in 28 of the 8.7 million people who got the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. That’s about three cases per million. Some people have died after getting the vaccines, but fewer than you’d expect based on the normal death rates for people in those age brackets. In other words, vaccinated people, like unvaccinated people, die of other causes, such as heart attacks or strokes—but they don’t die from getting the vaccine. The approved vaccines are also better than COVID-19 at immunizing you against further coronavirus infection. In the latest studies, people who recovered from COVID-19 showed pretty good immunity against reinfection, but the CDC-recommended Pfizer or Moderna still made the immunity stronger. In particular, these vaccines supplied better protection against new variants of the virus than previous COVID-19 infection did. So COVID-19 isn’t just vastly more dangerous than the vaccines. It’s also inferior as a form of protection.
As people make decisions for themselves and their families, with the Indian variant percolating and spreading, they should consider whether they'd prefer to protect themselves preemptively with vigorously tested and stupendously safe and effective vaccines, or whether they'd prefer to live through COVID (they're still extremely likely to survive it, though some will not, with varying levels of symptoms) in order to achieve immunity. The former course of action has very, very few downsides. The risks and unpleasantness associated with the latter option are empirically far more severe. It's worth thinking about, hard, especially as a turbocharged variant (in terms of contagiousness and possibly severity) bears down on the country. Timing could be important:
21/ Is the threat real? UK has been a step ahead of U.S. on vaccinations, & cases/deaths have fallen faster in UK than in U.S. But look at recent UK case # s – they’ve doubled in past 2 wks, as Delta became dominant strain (now 91% of UK cases). Reassuringly, deaths remain low… pic.twitter.com/1bp4Vbje6u
— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) June 13, 2021
That's because "unvaxxed are mostly younger & less likely to get sick," the doctor explained, adding, "but don't be surprised if we see upticks in hospitalizations/deaths, esp. if Delta proves to be more serious (it’s looking that way), and if it begins to dodge immunity in those with low or waning protection." That merits consideration. I'll leave you with this unsubtle reminder of immunity's benefits, as well as some data that suggests the new variant is indeed likelier to lead to more severe outcomes:
Virtually all hospitalized Covid-19 patients have one thing in common: They're unvaccinated. https://t.co/g9AIv4bmy0
— NBC News (@NBCNews) June 13, 2021
As the Indian/Delta variant rapidly becomes more prevalent in the US, it’s a great time to get vaccinated! The vaccines are effective against it, but it’s much more contagious than previous strains and a new study suggests it’s more severe, too: https://t.co/s0NZl2nXLG
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 14, 2021
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