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What's Going on at 538?

New Fox Poll: National Race Tightens, Trump Again Outperforming Among Latinos

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Fox News, whose pollster often draws the president's ire, is out with a new national survey. It shows a five-point national contest, with challenger Joe Biden at 51 percent and the incumbent at 46 percent -- matching his share of the "popular" vote in 2016. This suggests that the nationwide race has gotten closer, but the Democrat remains ahead. We referenced this finding in our earlier post, but GOP pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson noticed a few key takeaways from the crosstabs:


We've raised the trend of Trump significantly outperforming among Hispanics before, and it's looking like an established factor at this point. There are now numerous polls -- nationally, and in states like Florida and Texas -- that appear to confirm it. Given this data point in isolation, you might think Trump would be on track to coast to re-election, but he's not. Why? His margin among whites is weaker than last time, and as KSA points out, he's struggling badly among seniors. This is a demographic of reliable voters who broke in Trump's favor four years ago. His handling of coronavirus is likely one of the culprits on this front, given seniors' unique vulnerability to the disease. On that score, I can't imagine that the Woodward revelations were helpful to the re-election campaign (although I'll again raise my point that Team Trump should make a much bigger deal about this).


And while Republicans consistently tie Joe Biden to "defunding the police" -- his actual stance is not full defunding -- Democrats have been lying relentlessly about Trump's position on Social Security. Those attacks are aimed squarely at senior citizens, and they've been taken apart by fact-checkers:

The president must improve his standing among seniors to have a shot at winning a second term. A real uptick in that category, plus marked improvement within the Latino community, would be a potent combination for him. Ground zero on both tasks is Florida. Trump can win the Sunshine State and still lose the election, but it's basically impossible for him to lose Florida and win overall. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is trying to swoop in for the political kill shot. Liberals hate "money in politics," except when they don't:


If there's anyone who can throw a cool hundo mil out the window in the span of a few weeks, it's this guy. Republicans are hoping that his return on investment is similar to that of his presidential campaign. Meanwhile, it looks like violence and Joe Biden's belated and weak response to rioting has impacted the electorate's view of him in some key states, but Trump isn't disproportionately benefiting from that dynamic due to some of his own weaknesses.

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