If there's any doubt about which 2020 Democrat Team Trump is working overtime to prevent from becoming their general election opponent, doubt no more. The Trump campaign's various social media feeds have been relentlessly negative about Biden for months -- while criticizing others in the field, of course -- and now the re-election crew has produced a truly brutal compilation of the former Vice President's various gaffes and brain fog moments over the course of the still-young primary campaign. Everyone is aware of Biden's propensity to botch lines, ramble incoherently, and bungle facts; indeed, this flaw has barely fazed Democratic voters. But watching so many of them in a single reel, interspersed with negative media analysis and fellow Democrats questioning his fundamental fitness as a candidate, is still an arresting experience:
I've argued that Biden leaning too heavily on the "electability" argument is risky, because a house built on shifting perceptions is not moored to much else -- but I've also written that fellow Democratic hopefuls currently emulating many 2016 Republicans and waiting for an "inevitable" Biden collapse may find themselves waiting forever. Recent polling shows, for the most part, that Elizabeth Warren is making gains, but Biden is at least keeping pace:
#New Early Primary States @MorningConsult Post Debate Poll:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 17, 2019
Biden 34%
Sanders 21%
Warren 13%
Buttigieg 5%
Harris 5%
Steyer 4%
Booker 3%
Gabbard 3%
O'Rourke 3%
Yang 3%
Ryan 2%
Castro 1%
Delaney 1%
Williamson 1%
Bennet 0%
Bullock 0%
Klobuchar 0%https://t.co/aQXny4il7z
Based on other data, this MC survey understates Warren's support, and overstate's Bernie's, but Biden remains at the top of the heap -- in spite of some demographic factors that should help Warren (ie, the whiteness of the two earliest states). A new NBC/WSJ poll produces the look and feel of a two-way race, which might be the direction things are trending:
National NBC/WSJ poll on 2020 Dem race
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) September 17, 2019
Biden 31% (+5 from July)
Warren 25% (+6)
Sanders 14% (+1)
Buttigieg 7% (even)
Harris 5% (-8)
Yang 4% (+2)
Klobuchar 2% (+1)
Booker 2% (+1)
No other Dem got more than 1%
Sept 13-16, 506 Dem primary voters, MOE +/- 4.4%
This may become a game of who gains from the coming parade of inevitable drop-outs, and given Warren's enthusiasm advantage and widespread consideration as a potential backup choice, she's in a solid position. There's also a method to her "selfie" madness, even if she doesn't understand what that term actually means in practice. I tend to agree with the growing belief among some GOP strategists that Warren has a real shot and the nomination, and that the notion that she's unelectable is naive. The idea that anyone is a lock to beat Trump, or that Trump is a lock to beat anyone, feels preposterous at this stage. Meanwhile, some data out of California and (more importantly) Iowa:
New California poll from @EmersonPolling shows Kamala Harris trailing Andrew Yang in her home state
— Julia Manchester (@JuliaManch) September 17, 2019
Biden: 26%
Sanders: 26%
Warren: 20%
Yang: 7%
Harris: 6%https://t.co/NJTMGs3pt8
New Iowa Focus on Rural America poll: big gain for Biden. Warren, Klobuchar up. Harris plummets. @JoeBiden: 25% +8@ewarren: 23% +3@PeteButtigieg: 12% + 2@BernieSanders: 9% -3 @amyklobuchar: 8% + 4@KamalaHarris: 5% - 13@TomSteyer: 3% @CoryBooker: 2%@AndrewYang: 2%
— Natasha Korecki (@natashakorecki) September 18, 2019
Can we talk about what a disaster Kamala Harris' campaign is? I realize it's just one poll, but it shows her trailing Andrew Yang, and mired in the single-digits, in her home state. Plus, she's down more than a dozen points in Iowa, where she's sandwiched between Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer. At this point, there's no justification for continuing to call her a top tier contender. Maybe she should consider calling for Brett Kavanaugh to executed, or something, and see if Warren again follows her lead. It also looks like Beto's foul-mouthed gun confiscation phase has been a dud. Time for a seventh reboot, it seems. I'll leave you with a polling data guru suggesting that the press should avoid overblowing their preferred candidate's (Warren) standing:
The post-debate polls (if you look at all of them and not just the ones that have gotten the most media attention) have not *not* been good for Warren (note the double negative there, folks). But they've also been good for Biden.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 18, 2019
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