As Trump supporters celebrate a widely-anticipated home turf win in New York, they'll likely overlook yet another national poll showing the Republican frontrunner trailing likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by double digits as general election season approaches. The latest
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NBC/WSJ GOP vs. Hillary (D+1 sample):
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) April 19, 2016
Kasich up 12 (51/39)
Cruz down 2 (44/46)
Trump down 11 (39/50)
Trump followers typically respond by dismissing inconvenient results as "biased" (problem: the polling has been quite consistent for weeks), and deploying Reagan comparisons from 1980 (problem: those arguments are bunk). As my tweet notes, this specific poll features a D+1 partisan sample, which may very well be generous to Republicans based on turnout trends over recent presidential cycles. The same poll shows respondents roughly evenly split on the question of which party should control Congress, which may be a heartening sign for down-ticket Republicans, some of whom are beginning to peel away from attending July's party convention. It also shows that it's not an overtly slanted poll against the GOP. Here's a slightly puzzling nugget from the new survey:
Republican voters support option 1, but oppose option 3? pic.twitter.com/AZOPClWc0r
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) April 19, 2016
Republican voters are comfortable with Cruz winning at the convention by persuading delegates to support his campaign, but they're opposed to Trump being denied the nomination even if he commands a plurality -- but not the required majority -- of delegates.
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I'll leave you with these stories about major internal strife in Trumpland, with Corey Lewandowski losing power, and a top official quitting the campaign. The bad news for Trump fans is that he's presiding over a dysfunctional trainwreck. The good news is that it appears that Trump is finally getting more serious about campaign spending, and that actual professionals with some knowledge of how politics works are gaining the upper hand over incompetent amateurs. If Trump can salvage the last few months of this primary campaign with this significant shake-up, that might be enough to push him over the top.
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