Just over a week ago, Conn wrote up a Quinnipiac poll showing conservative Joni Ernst jumping out to a six-point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley in the Iowa Senate race. The race
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The ground under Bruce Braley has shifted. The Democratic U.S. Senate candidate is 6 points behind his GOP rival, Joni Ernst, according to The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll of likely voters. Ernst leads 44 percent to 38 percent in a race that has for months been considered deadlocked. She leads nearly 4-1 with rural voters, and is up double digits with independents. "Very interesting, and good news not just for Ernst but also for the GOP's chances of taking the U.S. Senate," said national political prognosticator Larry Sabato of "Sabato's Crystal Ball." Just seven months ago, political analysts considered Braley almost a shoo-in for a seat held for 30 years by liberal Democrat Tom Harkin.
Braley still leads Ernst among women (46/33), but the Republican enjoys a whopping 25-point lead with men, in addition to her significant lead among independent voters. With 12 percent of the Iowa electorate undecided in the poll, Braley certainly has time and space to make up ground, but some of the trends have to be troubling for his campaign. In the DMR survey, Braley (a sitting Congressman) is struggling in the high 30's and losing his home district to Ernst; the GOP's lines of attack against him are also more potent. The poll tested each party's top negative messages, finding that Democrats' case against Ernst is
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"I think he has an attitude about the voters and life in general which was indicated by what he said about Chuck Grassley," said Democrat Dianna Fuhrmeister, a poll respondent who grows garden vegetables for a living in rural Iowa City. "He thinks he knows better than us." Fuhrmeister, who is registered as a Democrat but considers herself an independent, said her mind is made up to vote for Ernst, a state senator and lieutenant colonel in the Iowa National Guard. "She's the veteran. She seems to have common sense," she said.
Ernst is pushing back against Democratic attacks with positive ads starring some of the soldiers she led in Iraq. Here's one of them:
At last evening's debate, Braley insisted that he has a strong record on "standing up for veterans," yet even left-leaning Politifact rated the criticism that Braley missed nearly 80 percent of Veterans Affairs meetings as
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