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Tipsheet

Could Republicans Sweep Tuesday's Special Elections?

We've been following the Congressional special elections in Nevada and New York over the last few weeks, and the big day is finally drawing nigh.  Could the GOP win both contests?  Even the seat that's been held by Geraldine Ferraro, Chuck Schumer, and -- most recently -- Anthony Weiner?  Perhaps.  Another independent pollster shows Republican Bob Turner surging into the lead as the campaign enters its home stretch:
 

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With only four days until election, Republican Bob Turner appears to have gained major ground in his race against Democrat David Weprin, according to the Siena Research Institute poll. Turner now leads Weprin 50-44 among likely voters, in a dramatic reversal from last month, when Siena had Weprin up 48-42. 
 


The DCCC is in full panic mode, pouring a cool half mil into the race to air a last-ditch TV ad painting Turner as (surprise!) a corporate jet-owning fat cat.  Minor problem: The spot featured a CGI scene of a plane buzzing the lower Manhattan skyline.  The timing was, shall we say, unhelpful.  Democrats scrambled to pull and adjust the ad.  I noticed the 9/11 tone-deafness the first time I saw it, and grabbed a screenshot in anticipation of the original getting jammed down the memory hole:
 


Even as Democrats are reeling to cling to a "safe" seat in New York City, they've all but given up on NV-02.  Jim Geragthy notes the early voting tallies:
 

In Nevada, residents of the 2nd Congressional District will select their representative in Congress for the remainder of 2011 and 2012, choosing between Republican Mark Amodei, Democrat Kate Marshall, and two other candidates. Tim Fasano and Helmuth Lehmann.  Early voting has been brisk, with 20,038 registered Democrats, 32,068 registered Republicans, and 7,208 other voters casting ballots so far. That’s a healthy 12,030 vote margin for the Republicans, but there’s no guarantee that that translates to a 12,000 vote margin for Amodei.

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Amodei is stepping on Marshall's political throat* with this absolutely stellar closing attack ad:
 

Ouch.


The Dems in these races have been Mediscaring like mad, and it isn't sticking. If Republicans win both races next week -- in Schumer country and Harry Reid's back yard -- national Democrats might start sweating.  Profusely. 


*New Tone-approved rhetoric.

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