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Tipsheet

Top Nevada Political Analyst: Reid Will Win

One of Nevada's most informed and influential political observers, Jon Ralston, has stepped out onto a limb -- using his Sunday column to predict that Harry Reid will survive
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the "terrible atmospherics" and win on Tuesday:

It just feels as if [Reid] is going to lose.  But I don’t think he will. Why?

First, let me be clear on this tradition of predictions. It is not a wish list but a walking out on a limb, so I can either crow afterward or eat same. I base them on data I am privy to and my gut. I have had much success in the past — look it up. But if ever there were a year for my lifetime batting average to take a hit, this is the one.

So take this for what it’s worth:

Harry Reid is the most resilient figure in Nevada political history. He should not even be here. He lost a U.S. Senate race in 1974, embarrassed himself in a mayoral race in 1975 and should have lost his re-election bid in 1998. But he found a way to win 12 years ago, and he will again Tuesday.


Ralston outlines the reasons why the data and his gut have led him to his conclusion:

Reid’s handlers have run one of the most spectacular campaigns in history at all levels: The turnout machine is formidable. The TV has been pitch perfect. The strategy — to peel moderate Republicans and independents who might not like their guy away from Angle — has worked.

And, perhaps equally important, Republicans managed to nominate the one person this year who could lose to Reid.

Angle is a natural retail campaigner in small political subdivisions. But that’s not what a Senate race is about. And her campaign never could find a comfortable way to reconcile her past, controversial statements — they tried massage, change and deny — and she made plenty more during the campaign (Sharia law here, Canada’s terrorist conduit, Latinos-in-ads amnesia).

In the end, if she loses, I believe the six weeks following the GOP nominee’s primary win — she had a double-digit lead in June polls — were pivotal. During that period, the Reid ad campaign defined her so starkly and turned enough people into Anglophobes to give him a chance.

One more thing: Republicans do not have the huge turnout advantage in early voting they should in a wave election — under 4 points. And all the data I have seen tell me that unless Reid loses independents by 15 points or so, he will hold on.

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That final point is the most worrisome item for Republicans.  All the chatter about enthusiasm won't do Angle a lick of good if actual voter turnout doesn't reflect the much-ballyhooed intensity gap in Nevada.  For what it's worth, Ralston also predicts victories for Republicans Brian Sandoval and Dr. Joe Heck in the  state's gubernatorial and most closely-watched Congressional races, respectively.


UPDATE: Sharron Angle's campaign responds to Ralston's analysis HERE.

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