Fiorina Campaign Manager: Actually, That LA Times Poll Is Good News For Us

Posted: Sep 27, 2010 10:32 AM
Yesterday, we dissected the LA Times poll purporting to show Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina by a healthy eight point margin.  Team Carly's campaign manager has since followed up with his own in-depth analysis of the poll.  His conclusion: Considering the absurd oversampling of Democrats, it's shocking that Boxer's artificial lead wasn't wider:
TO:            XXXXX
FR:            Martin Wilson
                  Campaign Manager, Carly for California
RE:            Los Angeles Times Poll/CA Senate Race Update
The just-released poll by the Los Angeles Times is neither an accurate nor a reliable reflection of voter interest or likely participation in the upcoming election. 
Simply put, the Times poll overestimates Democratic voter participation by a wide margin, hence it produced skewed results that are inconsistent with other public and private polling in this race, including the respected Field Poll released on Friday. Specifically, the poll’s sample indicates that self-identified Democrats will hold a 16.75 percent advantage over Republicans, which is at least double what other credible polls indicate. In addition to understating the Republican vote, its results are based on 9 percent participation of independent voters when, again, other pollsters estimate that at least 20 percent of the electorate will be comprised of swing voters.  
With such an errant sampling methodology, we are amazed that Boxer’s lead over Carly is not in the double digits as opposed to the eight-point advantage they are giving the incumbent. At this stage and in light of the dynamics of the race during the time this survey was in the field, that is a gap that can, and will, be bridged in the coming weeks.

Wilson goes on to explain how the dynamics of this race are shifting, suggesting that Boxer may have already hit her high water mark after weeks of unanswered negative attacks on Fiorina:

For 10 days, while this survey was being conducted, Barbara Boxer spent several million dollars on unanswered advertising mischaracterizing both her own record and Carly’s record. It is notable that, despite this, Barbara Boxer was unable to increase her standing with voters in the Field Poll. We are now answering back with the launch of our advertising campaign just 72 hours ago, after both the Times and Field polls had been completed. As this campaign moves forward and as voters become aware of the facts about Barbara Boxer, the hyper-partisan career politician, the dynamics in this race will change quickly. Over the course of the next 38 days, the spotlight will be squarely on Barbara Boxer and the low road she has taken toward achieving higher office. Carly will stand in stark contrast to Boxer’s record of failure: a bipartisan problem solver who will use her real-world business experience to find common-sense solutions to solving our state and nation’s problems. As that happens, the numbers in this race will move, so hold on to your hats for an exciting and competitive race to November 2.