CA Sen: Does Boxer Lead by 8?

Posted: Sep 21, 2010 9:16 AM
PPP says she does:
A lot of Senate races are heading in the wrong direction for Democrats right now but California is not one of them. PPP's newest poll there finds Barbara Boxer continuing to hold onto a 50-42 lead over Carly Fiorina.

At first blush, this seems like a troubling outlier in a series of recent polls showing the race virtually tied.  Why are PPP's numbers so much more favorable for Boxer?  Check the internals: Their turnout model projects 49 percent of the state's 2010 electorate will self-identify as Democrats--seven points higher than the CA Democratic turnout in 2008.

If the folks at PPP truly believe that substantially more Golden State Democrats will show up to vote this November, as compared to a huge Democratic year with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, then I suspect I know where they stand on Prop 19.

UPDATE: Fox's new CA Sen poll shows a dead heat.