Prediction markets have begun to diverge from the early results in California’s key primary races, as Republicans had hoped their candidates would advance to the general election in November.
While Steve Hilton in the governor’s race and Spencer Pratt in Los Angeles’ mayoral race were both expected to remain in contention and current vote totals still show them in second place, platforms like Kalshi have seen support for their Democratic rivals surge in recent days.
According to the latest Associated Press voting data, Steve Hilton leads California’s gubernatorial primary with 27.2 percent, while the Democratic favorite Xavier Becerra is close behind at 26 percent. Tom Steyer trails at 20.2 percent, with about 40 percent of the vote still to be counted.
In Los Angeles, Karen Bass is expected to advance despite a surprisingly weak showing at 35.1 percent, while reality TV star Spencer Pratt follows closely behind with 29.4 percent. Nithya Raman, who initially fell behind, is in third at 23.4 percent but has begun closing the gap, with 36 percent of the votes left ot be counted.
And yet, the prediction markets have quickly begun to shift against those candidates as questions grow around California’s election process and the state prepares for a drawn-out count that could take weeks to finish.
In the Kalshi prediction market for the governor’s race primary advancers, Hilton has dropped 11 points, falling from 70 percent to 59 percent. Tom Steyer, the progressive billionaire, has gained seven points, rising to a 39 percent chance of advancing.
The prediction markets are more concerning, however, in the LA mayroal primary.
On the day of the primary, Spencer Pratt had a 74.5 percent chance of advancing to the general election, while progressive city councilwoman Nithya Raman had just a 29.2 percent chance. That night, Raman appeared to concede in part as she thanked supporters in a tearful speech. But by Friday, her chances had surged to 79 percent, while Pratt’s had fallen to 21 percent, marking an astounding reversal.
BREAKING: Nithya Raman has an 80% chance to advance & Spencer Pratt has a 20% chance to advance in the LA mayor election pic.twitter.com/MREKNAbNCu
— Kalshi Politics (@KalshiPolitics) June 5, 2026
It remains to be seen whether prediction markets will prove more accurate than the current vote counts.
Republicans have grown concerned about trust in California’s election process and the amount of time it takes to count the state’s ballots, especially as the primary was held Tuesday and the totals have changed only gradually throughout the week. President Trump also weighed in, accusing Democrats of cheating and announcing a federal investigation into the state's election process.
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